30.03.202606:57 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Pay Attention to on March 30? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Monday. In Germany, an inflation report for March will be released today, which will be the first inflation report for the month since the onset of the war in the Middle East, leading to a sharp rise in oil prices and other forms of energy. It is unlikely that anyone doubts that inflation will accelerate globally. The ECB and the Bank of England are prepared to tighten monetary policy to combat the strong rise in prices. However, over the last two months, only the dollar has been rising, as traders continue to flee from risk currencies and assets. Therefore, macroeconomic data this week may not have a substantial impact on currency pair movements.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events for Monday, the speech by Jerome Powell can be noted. It is difficult to predict what the Fed Chair will discuss today, but the central bank's last meeting was very recent, so he is unlikely to share any new information. The Fed's position is straightforward— a pause in easing monetary policy, which puts the dollar at a disadvantage compared to the euro and the pound. It would have been a disadvantage if not for geopolitics, which has forced traders and investors to buy the safe US dollar. We still believe that fundamentals, technical analysis, and macroeconomics currently have minimal influence on the currency market.

General Conclusions:

During the first trading day of the week, the market may witness absolutely any movements, as news concerning the Middle East can arrive at any time and has recently been quite contradictory in nature. The euro can be traded today in the range of 1.1527-1.1531, while the British pound can be traded in the range of 1.3259-1.3267. We still do not see any grounds for a strong and sustained rise in the American currency (considering all factors, not just geopolitics), but the market remains entirely focused on geopolitics, which only supports the safe-haven dollar.

Key Principles of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades have been opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can form many false signals or none at all. In any case, at the first signs of a flat trend, it is best to stop trading.
4. Trading deals are to be opened during the period between the start of the European session and the mid-American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade based on signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
6. If two levels are positioned too close together (5-20 pips apart), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
7. Upon moving 15-20 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.

Red lines represent channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate the direction in which it is preferable to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and the signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the previous movement.

Beginning traders in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.