01.04.202620:09 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Tips for beginner traders on April 1st (U.S. session)

Trade analysis and tips for trading the Japanese yen

There were no tests of the levels I identified during the first half of the day.

In the near term, trading focus will undoubtedly shift to key macroeconomic indicators from the United States. Market participants will concentrate on ADP data on changes in private sector employment. Results exceeding forecasts are expected to strengthen the U.S. dollar, while weak figures could trigger further decline in the USD/JPY pair.

Alongside employment data, retail sales figures will also be released. Consumer spending is the foundation of the U.S. economy, and retail sales dynamics will provide valuable insight into the strength of consumer demand. Weak January data, which showed a decline in retail sales, will likely be replaced by stronger February figures, which could halt the bearish trend in USD/JPY.

Additional attention will be drawn to speeches by Federal Open Market Committee representatives Alberto Musalem and Michael S. Barr. Traders will closely analyze their comments on the current economic situation, inflation outlook, and future monetary policy for signals regarding possible changes in the key interest rate.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point around 158.82 (green line on the chart), with a target of 159.47 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 159.47, I will exit buy positions and open sell positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction). Growth in the pair today can be expected in the case of a hawkish Fed stance.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 158.41 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 158.82 and 159.47 can be expected.

Sell signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after it breaks the 158.41 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 157.56, where I will exit sell positions and also open buy positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction). Pressure on the pair may increase further after weak data.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 158.82 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 158.41 and 157.56 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price where you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated level to place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price where you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated level to place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.