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Bitcoin has been tracing a kind of upward move that is merely a correction for two months. This is clearly visible on the daily timeframe. The liquidity pool below remains untouched, and the price is likely to revisit it with roughly a 90% probability. We believe market maker manipulations are possible in the near term to convince traders that a new uptrend has begun.
Meanwhile, BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes said that Bitcoin's price depends not on central bank policy per se but on the overall money supply. It is worth recalling that the last major uptrend formed after the pandemic, when central banks printed tens and hundreds of billions of dollars, euros and other currencies, and markets began to expect monetary easing. Hayes's view is logical: the more money in the economy, the cheaper it becomes and the more capital flows into various assets. But are central banks going to start the printing presses again any time soon?
Under what circumstances would central banks begin to print money? In our view, the war in Iran will not change the monetary policy approach of the major regulators. The global economy may slow, but unlikely enough to prompt new large?scale issuance. Expanding the money supply would further stoke inflation, while central banks are already expecting strong consumer price growth in the coming months — March CPI readings have already confirmed that hypothesis. Thus, the talk is more likely about tightening monetary policy — higher rates and a reduced money supply to curb price growth. The ECB, the Bank of England and the Fed have already identified their primary task for 2026: prevent inflation from getting out of control. Therefore, money supply growth is unlikely in the near term. Bitcoin remains a risky investment asset, currently in a bearish trend and having lost about 50% of its value in just six months. Investors remember that every Bitcoin bull run has ended with a 70–80% crash.
Bitcoin continues to form a full bearish trend with corrective rallies against it. We continue to expect a decline toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the three?year uptrend), and there are currently no signs of a trend reversal. Even $57,500 no longer looks like a final stop. From current POI areas, the only notable zone is the nearest bearish FVG on the daily TF around $79,300–$81,200. On the 4?hour TF, Bitcoin has swept liquidity, but that alone is insufficient to open shorts — bearish patterns are needed. Although sometimes a liquidity sweep is enough to trigger a serious move.
On the daily TF, a downtrend continues to form, with corrective moves against it. The key sell pattern was and remains the bearish order block on the weekly TF. As we warned, the move triggered by that signal can be strong and prolonged. After its formation, Ethereum fell about 55% (roughly $2,500). In the near term, Ethereum may continue a weak upward correction, but every correction ends sooner or later. On the 4?hour TF, Ethereum has worked through recent FVGs fairly well, but price action remains weak and corrective. Bitcoin and Ethereum have swept liquidity from the March 17 highs. A decline could begin in the near future.
CHOCH — change of character / break of the trend structure. Liquidity — liquidity, traders' Stop?Losses that market makers use to build their positions. FVG — Fair Value Gap (area of price inefficiency). The price often moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Later, the price tends to return and react to these zones. IFVG — Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such a zone, the price does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.
OB — Order Block. A candle on which a market?maker opened a position in order to harvest liquidity and then form their own position in the opposite direction.
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