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Despite the escalation of the Middle Eastern conflict following the seizure of commercial vessels by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, gold prices have shown a tendency to decline. This situation seemingly should have stimulated traditional demand for the precious metal as a safe-haven asset; however, market inertia and other factors are currently hindering the realization of such a scenario.
The extension of the U.S. ceasefire agreement with Iran, originally intended to reduce tensions, paradoxically left global markets in a state of uncertainty. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, even while maintaining a formal ceasefire, continues to have a significant impact on energy security, sustaining high inflation risks. This creates a complex economic environment where forecasting the behavior of traditional safe-haven assets is challenging.
Moreover, today's attack by Iran on several commercial vessels directly in the Persian Gulf has only exacerbated the overall picture. This incident, which violates the fragile truce, has significantly heightened the backdrop of uncertainty, but as the current dynamics show, gold has not yet been able to fully capitalize on these risks.
The price of gold has dropped by 1% to below $4,700 per ounce, negating the gains from the previous session after U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the ceasefire reached on April 7 will remain in effect indefinitely while Washington awaits a new peace proposal from Iran, although Tehran claims it has no plans to participate in negotiations in the near future.
Trump's extension of the ceasefire indicates a refusal to resume bombings of Iran. However, both sides continue to vie for control of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for energy supplies, to gain leverage in possible negotiations regarding a ceasefire.
The conflict, now in its eighth week, has caused an unprecedented shock to energy supplies, intensifying inflationary risks and making central banks more inclined to keep interest rates stable for longer or even raise them. This exerts pressure on the non-yielding precious metal, with prices decreasing approximately 11% since the beginning of the war.
As for the current technical picture of gold, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $4,771. This would allow targeting $4,835, above which it will be quite challenging to break. The further target will be the area of $4,893. If gold falls, bears will attempt to take control of $4,708. If successful, breaking this range will deal a significant blow to the bulls' positions and push gold down to a low of $4,647, with a prospect of reaching $4,591.
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