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Overview:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting the two-week high at 102.71 on Monday. It is underpinned by the weaker yen sentiment after Japan March trade deficit came in wider than expected at Y1.45 trillion (versus Y1.07 trillion forecast), yen-funded funded carry trades amid positive risk appetite (VIX fear gauge eased 0.82% to 13.25) as Wall Street rose overnight (S&P 500 closed 0.38% higher at 1,871.89); positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 79.95 versus 79.85 early Monday) on higher U.S. stocks and stronger-than-expected 0.8% rise in U.S. Conference Board leading economic index to 100.9 in March (versus +0.7% forecast), higher U.S. Treasury yields and demand from Japan importers. But USD sentiment are dented by the drop in Chicago Fed National Activity Index to +0.20 in March from +0.53 in February. USD/JPY gains are also tempered by Japan's exporter sales and lingering concerns over the conflict in Ukraine.
Technical сomment:
Daily chart is positive-biased as stochastics is rising from the oversold zone, MACD staged bullish crossover against its exponential moving average.
Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.95 and the second target at 103.20. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 102.05. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 101.85. The pivot point is at 102.30.
Resistance levels:
102.95
103.20
103.50
Support levels:
102.05
101.85
101.65
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