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Wednesday was filled with geopolitical events. Some of them carry "insider" information again, but others are official statements from representatives of Tehran and Washington. Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that the military operation in Iran might conclude soon, a truce is in place, and the first draft of a peace agreement may be finalized in the coming days. Market participants are well aware of the TACO principle, so they are always very cautious regarding Trump's words. However, on Wednesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi also made a significant statement that requires detailed analysis.
Araqchi stated that Iran is ready to sign a fair and comprehensive agreement with the US. Many market participants perceived this news as Iran's willingness to make concessions on key issues and positions. However, in my opinion, this is not the case. Tehran has not previously rejected an agreement with the US, but it has always made it clear that the agreement must be fair and should not undermine Iran's interests. Therefore, Araqchi did not communicate anything new. Iran is still open to a deal, but a deal means that both sides agree on all issues. Have Iran and the US reached an agreement on the nuclear issue? I have my doubts...
Certainly, a way can be found out of any deadlock, and a bad peace is better than a good quarrel. In fact, there are numerous options for resolving the nuclear issue. The question is whether the parties can find common ground on this matter. Mutual compromise typically undermines the initial positions of both sides. As it stands, absolutely nothing is known about Iran's new position in the negotiations or any concessions from the US, so we can only judge the situation based on the leaders' general statements.
If we closely examine the rhetoric of Trump and the senior officials in Tehran, we can easily see that it has not changed. Trump continues to assert that a deal will be signed soon and that Iran is ready to make concessions. Authorities in Tehran continue to insist on a fair deal that does not require President Masoud Pezeshkian's signature on Trump's list of ultimatums. I previously mentioned that negotiations between conflicting countries can last a very long time. At this stage of negotiations, it would be quite positive if the parties could at least agree on a framework agreement. This would mean that there is still a chance for a peaceful deal. However, at the same time, I would not be 100% sure that a deal is inevitable and that the de-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is a matter of the coming weeks. Just yesterday, Iranian missiles were flying towards the UAE.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward trend area (lower picture) and, in the short term, within a corrective structure. The corrective wave set looks quite complete and can only take on a more complex, elongated form if the geopolitical background in the Middle East does not worsen. Otherwise, a new downward trend may begin from the current positions. We have seen a corrective wave, and I expect a new upward movement from the current levels with targets around the 19 figure.
The wave picture of the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer over time, as I anticipated. Now we see a clear five-wave upward structure on the charts that may be completed soon. If this is indeed the case, we should expect the formation of a corrective wave set. Therefore, the basic scenario for the coming days is an increase towards the 37 figure. What happens next will depend on geopolitical factors.
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