12.05.202613:42 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on May 12th (US Session)

Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 157.52 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by only 15 points.

April US Consumer Price Index data will attract close attention from traders. This indicator, which tracks fluctuations in the prices of a broad range of goods and services, is one of the Federal Reserve's key benchmarks. The most important aspect will be the analysis of core CPI, which excludes the most volatile components such as food and energy prices. This measure is often considered more reliable for assessing long-term inflation trends, which is especially important amid the energy crisis. Analyzing the dynamics of Core CPI will help determine more precisely whether inflationary pressure is stabilizing or intensifying.

In addition to the statistical releases, markets will closely monitor public remarks from Federal Open Market Committee member Austan D. Goolsbee. Any unexpected data or comments could trigger heightened volatility in financial markets.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more heavily on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1

Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 157.67 (green line on the chart), targeting growth toward 158.15 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.15, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point reversal move from the level. Expectations for further growth in the pair today are justified if US data comes in strong.

Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning its upward movement from it.

Scenario No. 2

I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 157.50 price level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 157.67 and 158.15 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1

I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a breakout below the 157.50 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 157.16 level, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point reversal move from the level. Pressure on the pair will return today if US data comes in weak.

Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement from it.

Scenario No. 2

I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 157.67 price level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 157.50 and 157.16 can then be expected.

What's on the Chart

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area where profits can be manually locked in, since further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area where profits can be manually locked in, since further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it is important to pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade with large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.