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As of the preparation of this material on Thursday, prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil are hovering around $97.22, up 0.34% on the day, which was marked by heightened volatility. This benchmark American crude initially fell to $95.50—such was the market's initial reaction to the talks between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. However, shortly after, the quotes recovered and returned to an upward trend.
The price change occurred after White House representatives characterized the meeting between the presidents as "positive," emphasizing discussions aimed at enhancing economic partnership. The leaders agreed that freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz must be ensured, which is particularly important for oil markets given the waterway's strategic significance to global oil trade.
These statements allowed for a slight reduction in the "geopolitical risk premium" that had been built into energy prices in recent weeks. The market cautiously monitored discussions regarding Iran, as it was expected that Trump would insist on the need for pressure on Tehran to achieve a peace agreement and fully restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump also noted that he had "extremely productive and constructive" negotiations with Xi Jinping and invited the Chinese leader to visit the White House on September 24. In turn, Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of stable bilateral relations, calling for a partnership between China and the US rather than confrontation.
Despite this, expectations regarding the global supply continue to provide fundamental support for oil prices. On Wednesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that this year, the global supply of oil is likely to fall below demand levels due to disruptions caused by the conflict involving Iran in the Middle East. Currently, the agency expects global production to decline by about 3.9 million barrels per day this year, a significant revision from its previous estimate.
From a technical perspective, the oscillators are positive, indicating a bullish market advantage. Oil is trading above key moving averages, confirming the strength of the bulls. Therefore, bears are currently not in play.
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