19.09.201418:37 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Sep 19, 2014

Long-term review

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Fundamental Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting six-year high 108.96 on Thursday. USD/JPY is underpinned by the yen-funded carry trades amid positive investor risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 4.9% to 12.03; S&P 500 hit record high 2,012.34 before closing up 0.49% at 2,011.36 overnight) as investors are heartened by the steady-as-she-goes message the Federal Reserve is delivering on the economy and interest rates. USD/JPY also supported by demand from Japan importers; higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.618% versus 2.600% late Wednesday). But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan exporter sales, weaker dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last at 84.25 versus 84.78 early Thursday) as larger-than-expected 14.4% on-month drop in U.S. housing starts to 956,000 in August (versus forecast minus 5.6%), 5.6% on-month drop in U.S. building permits to 998,000 in August (versus forecast minus 1.1%) and more-than-expected drop in Philadelphia Fed's index of general business activity to 22.5 in September from 28.0 in August (versus forecast 24.0) offset fewer-than-expected 280,000 U.S. jobless claims in week ended Sept. 13 (versus forecast 305,000). USD/JPY upside also limited by profit-taking on long-USD positions as market participants trim risk exposure before weekend.

Technical comment:
Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought zone, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 109.45 and the second target at 110. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 108. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 107.65. The pivot point is at 108.35.

Resistance levels:
109.45
110
110.25

Support levels:
108
107.65
107.10

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