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22.03.2023: Fed rate decision takes focus. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB
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After yesterday’s slide, oil prices made an attempt to recoup losses. The British crude benchmark rose over 3% in the last two sessions, driven by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s comments on liquidity problems in the banking sector. She said that the government would be ready to take further action to protect banks amid fears of deposit runs. Furthermore, the Fed is expected to deliver a more moderate 25-basis-point rate hike in light of easing inflationary pressures and banking sector turmoil.
Although oil has gained value, this move can hardly be called a full-fledged rebound. After all, the asset has dipped from $87 per barrel to the current $75 per barrel.
From a technical point of view, a downtrend remains intact, while the current upward correction is a short-term component of the medium-term trend. If the quote returns below 71, the asset will extend losses and break through the 70 mark. In case the quote consolidates above the level of 76, its bullish correction will continue.
Today, much will depend on the outcome of the Fed’s meeting to be followed by a press conference by Jerome Powell. The head of the Federal Reserve is expected to announce a gradual easing of monetary policy. This in turn will lead to a steep fall in the dollar.
Against this background, oil has every chance of gaining upside momentum.
However, the reason for the Fed’s policy shift may be a very difficult economic situation. This may indicate a potential slump in energy demand. In other words, a rally in oil prices will rather be short-lived. Then, the asset is likely to resume a downtrend.
But as noted, much will depend on Powell’s statement.
Yesterday, in late trade, gold lost value but remained above the level of 1,900 dollars per ounce. This means that investors are overwhelmingly pricing in a possible shift in the Fed’s monetary policy in the face of deteriorating economic conditions. Therefore, it makes sense to flee to more reliable instruments, that is, safe-haven assets. If the dollar comes under stronger pressure amid growing risks, gold will be seen as the best protective financial solution. So, today's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee is expected to push the yellow metal up, paving the way for a rise above $2,000 per ounce. Whereas yesterday's decline is just a classic move in the opposite direction from expectations ahead of an important event.
Meanwhile, the Russian currency seems to have stabilized in the range of 76 to 77 rubles per dollar. However, it will hardly stay long there. A sharp change in the Fed's policy stance will affect the entire world, including the ruble. Most likely, the Russian currency will kick off the next trading day with gains and then try to stabilize in the area between 75 and 76.
That’s all for now. We wish you profitable deals. See you on our channel with a new video in a couple of hours!
00:00 Introduction
00:44 Brent
01:24 In anticipation of Fed meeting
01:42 Oil Market Situation
02:111 Gold
03:11 USD/RUB
03:40 Conclusion
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