Minor (h4)
Ðàññìîòðèì êîìïëåêñíî âàðèàíòû ðàçâèòèÿ äâèæåíèÿ âàëþòíûõ èíñòðóìåíòîâ AUD/USD vs USD/CAD vs NZD/USD vs #USDX ñ 17 ñåíòÿáðÿ 2019 ã. â îïåðàöèîííîì ìàñøòàáå Minor (òàéìôðåéì Daily).
Ïðåäûäóùèé îáçîð îò 19.08.2019 18:44 UTC+3.
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US Dollar Index
Ñ 17 ñåíòÿáðÿ 2019 ã. ðàçâèòèå äâèæåíèÿ èíäåêñà äîëëàðà #USDX ïðîäîëæèò îïðåäåëÿòüñÿ îòðàáîòêîé è íàïðàâëåíèåì ïðîáîÿ ãðàíèö êàíàëà 1/2 Median Line (98.80 - 98.05 - 97.75) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute (äåòàëè äâèæåíèÿ âíóòðè äàííîãî êàíàëà ñìîòðèì íà àíèìàöèîííîì ãðàôèêå).
Ïðè ïðîáîå íèæíåé ãðàíèöû êàíàëà 1/2 Median Line Minute (óðîâåíü ïîääåðæêè 97.75) ðàçâèòèå äâèæåíèÿ èíäåêñà äîëëàðà ïðîäîëæèòñÿ ê ãðàíèöàì çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ (97.55 - 97.00 - 96.50) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute.
À åñëè ñîñòîèòñÿ ïðîáîé âåðõíåé ãðàíèöû êàíàëà 1/2 Median Line (óðîâåíü ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 98.40) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute, òîãäà âîñõîäÿùåå äâèæåíèå #USDX áóäåò íàïðàâëåíî ê öåëÿì - êîíòðîëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ UTL (99.00) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minor - íà÷àëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ SSL Minute (99.20) - maximum 99.36 - êîíòðîëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ UTL Minute (99.55) - ïðåäóïðåäèòåëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ UWL38.2 Minute (99.95).
Ðàçìåòêà âàðèàíòîâ äâèæåíèÿ #USDX c 17 ñåíòÿáðÿ 2019 ã. ïîêàçàíà íà àíèìàöèîííîì ãðàôèêå.
![Êóðñ âàëþòû íà 17.09.2019 analysis]()
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Australian Dollar vs
US Dollar Ðàçâèòèå äâèæåíèÿ àâñòðàëèéñêîãî äîëëàðà
AUD/USD ñ 17 ñåíòÿáðÿ 2019 ã.
ñòàíåò îïðåäåëÿòüñÿ íàïðàâëåíèåì ïðîáîÿ äèàïàçîíà:
- óðîâåíü ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 0.6885 (íèæíÿÿ ãðàíèöà ISL38.2 çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute);
- óðîâåíü ïîääåðæêè 0.6820 (ëèíèÿ ðåàêöèè RL161.8 âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minor).
Ñîâìåñòíûé ïðîáîé
óðîâíÿ ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 0.6885 (ISL38.2 Minute) è
êîíå÷íîé Shiff Line Minute (
0.6900) ñäåëàåò âîçìîæíûì ðàçâèòèå äâèæåíèÿ
àâñòðàëèéñêîãî äîëëàðà â çîíå ðàâíîâåñèÿ (
0.6885 - 0.6940 - 0.6990) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute ñ ïåðñïåêòèâîé äîñòèæåíèÿ
ëîêàëüíîãî maximum 0.7083.
Ïðè ïðîáîå ëèíèè ðåàêöèè RL161.8 (
óðîâåíü ïîääåðæêè 0.6820) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minor
íèñõîäÿùåå äâèæåíèå AUD/USD ìîæåò áûòü ïðîäîëæåíî ê ãðàíèöàì êàíàëà 1/2 Median Line (
0.6765 - 0.6725 - 0.6678) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute.
Ðàçìåòêó âàðèàíòîâ äâèæåíèÿ AUD/USD c 17 ñåíòÿáðÿ 2019 ã. ñìîòðèì íà àíèìàöèîííîì ãðàôèêå.
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New Zealand Dollar vs
US Dollar Äâèæåíèå íîâîçåëàíäñêîãî äîëëàðà
NZD/USD ñ 17 àâãóñòà 2019 ã. òàêæå
áóäåò çàâèñåòü îò îòðàáîòêè è íàïðàâëåíèÿ ïðîáîÿ äèàïàçîíà:
- óðîâåíü ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 0.6405 (íèæíÿÿ ãðàíèöà êàíàëà 1/2 Median Line âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute);
- óðîâåíü ïîääåðæêè 0.6360 (ïðåäóïðåäèòåëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ UWL38.2 âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minor).
Ïðîáîé
óðîâíÿ ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 0.6405 - âàðèàíò ðàçâèòèÿ äâèæåíèÿ
NZD/USD â ãðàíèöàõ êàíàëà 1/2 Median Line (
0.6405 - 0.6450 - 0.6500) è çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ (
0.6480 - 0.6555 - 0.6615) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute.
À ïðè ïðîáîå ïðåäóïðåäèòåëüíîé ëèíèè UWL38.2 (
óðîâåíü ïîääåðæêè 0.6340) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minor
íèñõîäÿùåå äâèæåíèå íîâîçåëàíäñêîãî äîëëàðà ìîæåò áûòü ïðîäîëæåíî ê ãðàíèöàì êàíàëà 1/2Median Line (
0.6300 - 0.6225 - 0.6145) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minor.
Ðàçìåòêó âàðèàíòîâ äâèæåíèÿ NZD/USD c 17 ñåíòÿáðÿ 2019 ã. ñìîòðèì íà àíèìàöèîííîì ãðàôèêå.
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US Dollar vs
Canadian Dollar È êàíàäñêèé äîëëàð
USD/CAD íå èñêëþ÷åíèå - ðàçâèòèå äâèæåíèÿ îíîãî ñ 17 ñåíòÿáðÿ 2019 ã. òîæå ñòàíåò çàâèñåòü
îò íàïðàâëåíèÿ ïðîáîÿ äèàïàçîíà:
- óðîâåíü ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 1.3315 (íà÷àëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ SSL âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute);
- óðîâåíü ïîääåðæêè 1.3275 (âåðõíÿÿ ãðàíèöà êàíàëà 1/2 Median Line âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minor).
Ïðîáîé
óðîâíÿ ïîääåðæêè 1.3275 îïðåäåëèò ðàçâèòèå äâèæåíèÿ
êàíàäñêîãî äîëëàðà â êàíàëå 1/2 Median Line (
1.3275 - 1.3210 - 1.3135) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minor ñ ïåðñïåêòèâîé äîñòèæåíèÿ âåðõíåé ãðàíèöû ISL38.2 (
1.3060) çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute è
îáíîâëåíèÿ ëîêàëüíîãî minimum 1.3015.
 ñëó÷àå æå ïðîáîÿ íà÷àëüíîé ëèíèè SSL (
óðîâåíü ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 1.3315) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute
âîñõîäÿùåå äâèæåíèÿ USD/CAD ìîæåò áûòü ïðîäîëæåíî ê öåëÿì - êîíòðîëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ UTL Minute (
1.3350) -
ëîêàëüíûé maximum 1.3382 - ïðåäóïðåäèòåëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ UWL61.8 Minor (
1.3435) - êîíòðîëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ UTL Minor (
1.3490).
Ðàçìåòêó âàðèàíòîâ äâèæåíèÿ USD/CAD c 17 ñåíòÿáðÿ 2019 ã. ñìîòðèì íà àíèìàöèîííîì ãðàôèêå.
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Îáçîð ñîñòàâëåí áåç ó÷åòà íîâîñòíîãî ôîíà, îòêðûòèÿ òîðãîâûõ ñåññèé îñíîâíûõ ôèíàíñîâûõ öåíòðîâ è íå ÿâëÿåòñÿ ðóêîâîäñòâîì ê äåéñòâèþ (âûñòàâëåíèÿ îðäåðîâ "sell" èëè "buy")
Ôîðìóëà ðàñ÷åòà èíäåêñà äîëëàðà: USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.
ãäå ñòåïåííûå êîýôôèöèåíòû ñîîòâåòñòâóþò âåñàì âàëþò â êîðçèíå:
Åâðî — 57,6 %;
Èåíà — 13,6 %;
Ôóíò ñòåðëèíãîâ — 11,9 %;
Êàíàäñêèé äîëëàð — 9,1 %; Øâåäñêàÿ êðîíà — 4,2 %;
Øâåéöàðñêèé ôðàíê — 3,6 %.
Ïåðâûé êîýôôèöèåíò â ôîðìóëå ïðèâîäèò çíà÷åíèå èíäåêñà ê 100 íà äàòó íà÷àëà îòñ÷¸òà – ìàðò 1973 ãîäà, êîãäà îñíîâíûå âàëþòû íà÷àëè ñâîáîäíî êîòèðîâàòüñÿ äðóã îòíîñèòåëüíî äðóãà.
Ìàòåðèàëû äëÿ èçó÷åíèÿ Àíàëèçà ZUP & APL`s.