×òî ïîíåäåëüíèê, 21 îêòÿáðÿ 2019 ã., ïîñëå Áàðñåëîíû è Ëîíäîíà ãîòîâèò íàì íà ðûíêå? Êîìïëåêñíûé àíàëèç âàðèàíòîâ äâèæåíèÿ - h4 - #USDX, EUR/USD, GBP/USD è USD/JPY.
Minute (òàéì ôðåéì h4)
Äîïîëíåíèå ê ïðåäûäóùåìó îáçîðó ïî #USDX, EUR/USD, GBP/USD è USD/JPY îò 16.10.2019 ã. 21:06 UTC+4
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US dollar Index
Ñ 21 îêòÿáðÿ 2019 ã. äâèæåíèå èíäåêñà äîëëàðà #USDX ïðîäîëæèòñÿ â çàâèñèìîñòè îò íàïðàâëåíèÿ ïðîáîÿ äèàïàçîíà:
- óðîâåíü ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 97.55 (íà÷àëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ SSL âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette);
- óðîâåíü ïîääåðæêè 97.45 (êîíòðîëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ LTL âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette).
Ïðè ïðîáîå êîíòðîëüíîé ëèíèè LTL âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette (
óðîâåíü ïîääåðæêè 97.45) ñîâìåñòíî ñ íèæíåé ãðàíèöåé ISL61.8 (
óðîâåíü ïîääåðæêè 97.35) çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute
íèñõîäÿùåå äâèæåíèå èíäåêñà äîëëàðà ìîæåò áûòü ïðîäîëæåíî ê êîíå÷íîé ëèíèè FSL Minute (
96.05).
Ïðîáîé íà÷àëüíîé ëèíèè SSL Minuette (
óðîâåíü ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 97.55) îïðåäåëèò âàðèàíò ðàçâèòèÿ äâèæåíèÿ ê öåëÿì -
ñðåäèííàÿ ëèíèÿ Median Line Minute (
97.75) - âåðõíÿÿ ãðàíèöà ISL38.2 (
98.10) çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute ñ ïåðñïåêòèâîé äîñòèæåíèÿ
#USDX ãðàíèö çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ (
98.55 - 98.85 - 99.20) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette.
Ïîäðîáíîñòè äâèæåíèÿ #USDX ïðåäñòàâëåíû íà àíèìàöèîííîì ãðàôèêå.
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Euro vs
US Dollar Åäèíàÿ åâðîïåéñêàÿ âàëþòû
EUR/USD ñ 21 îêòÿáðÿ 2019 ã. ñòàíåò ðàçâèâàòü ñâîå
äâèæåíèå â çàâèñèìîñòè îò îòðàáîòêè è íàïðàâëåíèÿ ïðîáîÿ äèàïàçîíà:
- óðîâåíü ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 1.1152 (êîíòðîëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ UTL âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette - ëîêàëüíûé maximum);
- óðîâåíü ïîääåðæêè 1.1125 íà ëèíèè ðåàêöèè RL100.0 âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute.
Îáíîâëåíèå ëîêàëüíîãî maximum - ïðîáîé êîíòðîëüíîé ëèíèè UTL (
óðîâåíü ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 1.1152) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette - ïðîäîëæåíèå
âîñõîäÿùåãî äâèæåíèÿ åäèíîé åâðîïåéñêîé âàëþòû ê öåëÿì - íèæíÿÿ ãðàíèöà ISL38.2 (
1.1180) çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute -
êîíå÷íàÿ Shiff Line Minute (
1.1205) -
ñðåäèííàÿ ëèíèÿ Median Line Minute (
1.1245).
Ïðîáîé ëèíèè ðåàêöèè RL100.0 (
óðîâåíü ïîääåðæêè 1.1125) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute íàïðàâèò ðàçâèòèå äâèæåíèÿ
EUR/USD ê öåëÿì -
ãðàíèöà êðàñíîé çîíû (
1.1065) âèë Minuette - ãðàíèöû êàíàëà 1/2 Median Line (
1.1055 - 1.1030 - 1.1000) è çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ (
1.1020 - 1.0975 - 1.0935) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette.
Äåòàëè âàðèàíòîâ äâèæåíèÿ EUR/USD ïîêàçàíû íà àíèìàöèîííîì ãðàôèêå.
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Great Britain Pound vs
US Dollar Âàëþòà Åå Âåëè÷åñòâà
GBP/USD ñ ïîíåäåëüíèêà, 21 îêòÿáðÿ 2019 ã., ñòàíåò ðàçâèâàòü
äâèæåíèå â çàâèñèìîñòè îò îòðàáîòêè è íàïðàâëåíèÿ ïðîáîÿ äèàïàçîíà:
- óðîâåíü ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 1.2910 (ëèíèÿ ðåàêöèè RL161.8 âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute);
- óðîâåíü ïîääåðæêè 1.2765 (âåðõíÿÿ ãðàíèöà êàíàëà 1/2 Median Line âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette ).
Ïðîáîé ëèíèè ðåàêöèè RL161.8 (
óðîâåíü ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 1.2190) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute c
ïîñëåäîâàòåëüíûì ïðîáîé íà÷àëüíîé SSL (
1.2989 -
ëîêàëüíûé maximum) è êîíòðîëüíîé UTL (
1.3020) ëèíèé âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette îïðåäåëèò ïðîäîëæåíèå ðàçâèòèÿ
âîñõîäÿùåãî äâèæåíèÿ âàëþòû Åå Âåëè÷åñòâà ê êîíå÷íîé FSL (
1.3180) è ïðåäóïðåäèòåëüíîé UWL38.2 (
1.3420) ëèíèé âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute.
Ïðîáîé
óðîâíÿ ïîääåðæêè 1.2765 - ðàçâèòèå äâèæåíèÿ
GBP/USD â ãðàíèöàõ êàíàëà 1/2 Median Line Minuette (
1.2765 - 1.2695 - 1.2625)
è çîí ðàâíîâåñèÿ âèë îïåðàöèîííûõ ìàñøòàáîâ - Minuette (
1.2695 - 1.2595 - 1.2500) è Minute (
1.2695 - 1.2550 - 1.2400) ñ ïåðñïåêòèâîé äîñòèæåíèÿ êîíå÷íîé ëèíèè FSL Minuette (
1.2205).
Ïîäðîáíîñòè äâèæåíèÿ GBP/USD ìîæíî âèäåòü íà àíèìàöèîííîì ãðàôèêå.
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US Dollar vs
Japanese Yen Òàê æå êàê è â ïðåäûäóùèõ ñëó÷àÿõ, äâèæåíèå âàëþòû "ñòðàíû âîñõîäÿùåãî ñîëíöà"
USD/JPY ñ 21 îêòÿáðÿ 2019 ã. áóäåò
îáóñëîâëåíî íàïðàâëåíèåì ïðîáîÿ äèàïàçîíà:
- óðîâåíü ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 108.55 (íà÷àëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ SSL âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette);
- óðîâåíü ïîääåðæêè 108.25 (âåðõíÿÿ ãðàíèöà êàíàëà 1/2 Median Line âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette).
Ïðîáîé
óðîâíÿ ïîääåðæêè 108.25 - ðàçâèòèå äâèæåíèÿ
âàëþòû "ñòðàíû âîñõîäÿùåãî ñîëíöà" ñòàíåò ïðîèñòåêàòü â êàíàëå 1/2 Median Line Minuette (
108.25 - 108.00 - 107.75) ñ ïåðñïåêòèâîé äîñòèæåíèÿ
ãðàíèö çîí ðàâíîâåñèÿ âèë îïåðàöèîííûõ ìàñøòàáîâ - Minute (
107.65 - 107.05 - 106.50) è Minuette (
107.20 - 106.75 - 106.30).
Ïðîáîé íà÷àëüíîé ëèíèè SSL (
óðîâåíü ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 108.55) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette ñäåëàåò àêòóàëüíûì ðàçâèòèå
âîñõîäÿùåãî äâèæåíèÿ USD/JPY ê öåëÿì -
ëîêàëüíûé maximum 108.95 - êîíòðîëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ UTL Minuette (
109.05) - êîíå÷íàÿ ëèíèÿ FSL (
109.50) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute - ïðåäóïðåäèòåëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ UWL38.2 Minute (
110.45).
Ïîäðîáíîñòè äâèæåíèÿ USD/JPY ñìîòðèì íà àíèìàöèîííîì ãðàôèêå.
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Îáçîð ñîñòàâëåí áåç ó÷åòà íîâîñòíîãî ôîíà, îòêðûòèÿ òîðãîâûõ ñåññèé îñíîâíûõ ôèíàíñîâûõ öåíòðîâ è íå ÿâëÿåòñÿ ðóêîâîäñòâîì ê äåéñòâèþ (âûñòàâëåíèÿ îðäåðîâ "sell" èëè "buy").
Ôîðìóëà ðàñ÷åòà èíäåêñà äîëëàðà:
USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.
ãäå ñòåïåííûå êîýôôèöèåíòû ñîîòâåòñòâóþò âåñàì âàëþò â êîðçèíå:
Åâðî — 57,6 %;
Èåíà — 13,6 %;
Ôóíò ñòåðëèíãîâ — 11,9 %;
Êàíàäñêèé äîëëàð — 9,1 %;
Øâåäñêàÿ êðîíà — 4,2 %;
Øâåéöàðñêèé ôðàíê — 3,6 %.
Ïåðâûé êîýôôèöèåíò â ôîðìóëå ïðèâîäèò çíà÷åíèå èíäåêñà ê 100 íà äàòó íà÷àëà îòñ÷¸òà – ìàðò 1973 ãîäà, êîãäà îñíîâíûå âàëþòû íà÷àëè ñâîáîäíî êîòèðîâàòüñÿ äðóã îòíîñèòåëüíî äðóãà.
Ìàòåðèàëû äëÿ èçó÷åíèÿ Àíàëèçà ZUP & APL`s.