Ðàçâîðîò èëè ... îïÿòü ñêîðîñòíîé ñïóñê? Âàðèàíòû äâèæåíèÿ îñíîâíûõ âàëþòíûõ èíñòðóìåíòîâ ñ 26 ìàðòà 2020 ã. #USDX, EUR/USD, GBP/USD è USD/JPY - DAILY.
Äîïîëíåíèå ê îáçîðó îò 19:51 2020-03-18 UTC+3
Îïåðàöèîííûé ìàñøòàá Minor (òàéì ôðåéì Daily)
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US Dollar Index
Äâèæåíèå èíäåêñà äîëëàðà #USDX ñ 26 ìàðòà 2020 ã. ïðîäîëæèò îïðåäåëÿòüñÿ îòðàáîòêîé è íàïðàâëåíèåì ïðîáîÿ äèàïàçîíà:
- óðîâåíü ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 102.80 - íà÷àëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ SSL âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute;
- óðîâåíü ïîääåðæêè 101.65 - êîíå÷íàÿ Shiff Line âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minor
Ïðè ïðîáîå êîíå÷íîé Shiff Line âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minor -
óðîâåíü ïîääåðæêè 101.65 - îïðåäåëèò
ðàçâèòèå äâèæåíèÿ èíäåêñà äîëëàðà ê ãðàíèöàì çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ (
101.00 -99.95 - 98.75) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minor,
ñ ïåðñïåêòèâîé ïðîäîëæåíèÿ îíîãî óæå â çîíå ðàâíîâåñèÿ (
99.10 - 97.85 - 96.65) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute.
 ñëó÷àå ïðîáîÿ íà÷àëüíîé ëèíèè SSL âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute -
óðîâåíü ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 102.80 -
ñ ïîñëåäóþùèì îáíîâëåíèåì maximum 102.98 âîñõîäÿùåå äâèæåíèå #USDX ìîæåò áûòü ïðîäîëæåíî ê öåëÿì:
- êîíòðîëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ UTL (
103.85) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute;
- íà÷àëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ SSL (
104.80) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minor;
- ïðåäóïðåäèòåëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ UWL61.8 (
105.25) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute.
Ðàçìåòêà âàðèàíòîâ äâèæåíèÿ #USDX c 26 ìàðòà 2020 ã. ïîêàçàíà íà àíèìàöèîííîì *.gif ãðàôèêå - îòêðîåòñÿ â îòäåëüíîé âêëàäêå.
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Euro vs
US Dollar Ñîîòâåòñòâåííî, è ðàçâèòèå äâèæåíèÿ åäèíîé åâðîïåéñêîé âàëþòû
EUR/USD ñ 26 ìàðòà 2020 ã.
áóäåò çàâèñåòü îò îòðàáîòêè è íàïðàâëåíèÿ ïðîáîÿ äèàïàçîíà:
- óðîâåíü ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 1.0835 - íà÷àëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ SSL âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minor;
- óðîâåíü ïîääåðæêè 1.0785 - êîíòðîëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ LTL âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minor
Ïðîáîé íà÷àëüíàÿ ëèíèè SSL âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minor -
óðîâåíü ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 1.0835 - âàðèàíò ðàçâèòèÿ äâèæåíèÿ
EUR/USD ê ãðàíèöàì êàíàëà 1/2 Median Line Minute (
1.0910 - 1.1000 - 1.1090) ñ ïåðñïåêòèâîé äîñòèæåíèÿ çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ (
1.1160 - 1.1300 - 1.1465) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute.
Åñëè áóäåò èìåòü ìåñòî áûòü
ïðîáîé êîíòðîëüíîé ëèíèè LTL âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minor -
óðîâåíü ïîääåðæêè 1.0785 - òîãäà ñòàíåò âîçìîæíûì
âîçîáíîâëåíèå íèñõîäÿùåãî äâèæåíèÿ åäèíîé åâðîïåéñêîé âàëþòû ê öåëÿì:
- íà÷àëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ SSL Minute (
1.0710);
-
minimum 1.0638;
- êîíòðîëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ LTL Minute (
1.0610);
- ïðåäóïðåäèòåëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ LWL38.2 (
1.0270) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minor.
Âàðèàíòû äâèæåíèÿ EUR/USD c 26 ìàðòà 2020 ã. ñìîòðèì íà àíèìàöèîííîì *.gif ãðàôèêå - îòêðîåòñÿ â îòäåëüíîé âêëàäêå.
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Great Britain Pound vs
US Dollar Âàëþòà Åå Âåëè÷åñòâà
GBP/USD ñ 26 ìàðòà 2020 ã.
òàê æå ïðîäîëæèò ñâîå äâèæåíèå â çàâèñèìîñòè îò îòðàáîòêè äèàïàçîíà:
- óðîâåíü ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 1.1835 - íèæíÿÿ ãðàíèöà ISL38.2 çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute;
- óðîâåíü ïîääåðæêè 1.1665 - ïðåäóïðåäèòåëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ LWL38.2 âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minor
Ïðîáîé óðîâíÿ ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 1.1835 (ISL38.2 Minute) îïðåäåëèò
ðàçâèòèå äâèæåíèÿ GBP/USD â çîíå ðàâíîâåñèÿ (
1.1835 - 1.1955 - 1.2085) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute ñ âîçìîæíîñòüþ äîñòèæåíèÿ íà÷àëüíîé ëèíèè SSL (
1.2305) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minor è êîíå÷íîé ëèíèè FSL (
1.2550) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute.
Åñëè áóäåò ïðîáèòà ïðåäóïðåäèòåëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ LWL38.2 âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minor -
óðîâåíü ïîääåðæêè 1.1665 - òîãäà
ðàçâèòèå äâèæåíèÿ âàëþòû Åå Âåëè÷åñòâà áóäåò íàïðàâëåíî ê öåëÿì:
-
minimum 1.1411;
- ïðåäóïðåäèòåëüíàÿ ëèíè LWL61.8 (
1.1305) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minor;
- êîíå÷íàÿ ëèíèÿ FSL (
1.1105) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute.
Âàðèàíòû äâèæåíèÿ âàëþòû Åå Âåëè÷åñòâà c 26 ìàðòà 2020 ã. ïîêàçàíû íà àíèìàöèîííîì *.gif ãðàôèêå - îòêðîåòñÿ â îòäåëüíîé âêëàäêå ____________________
US Dollar vs
Japanese Yen Ðàçâèòèå äâèæåíèÿ âàëþòû "ñòðàíû âîñõîäÿùåãî ñîëíöà"
USD/JPY ñ 26 ìàðòà 2020 ã.
ñíîâà ñòàíåò îïðåäåëÿòüñÿ áóäåò îòðàáîòêîé è íàïðàâëåíèÿ ïðîáîÿ äèàïàçîíà:
- óðîâåíü ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 111.70 - êîíå÷íàÿ Shiff Line âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute;
- óðîâåíü ïîääåðæêè 110.55 - âåðõíÿÿ ãðàíèöà êàíàëà 1/2 Median Line âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minor
Ïðîáîé óðîâíÿ ïîääåðæêè 110.55 -
âàðèàíò ðàçâèòèÿ äâèæåíèÿ USD/JPY â ãðàíèöàõ êàíàëà 1/2 Median Line Minor (
110.55 - 109.40 - 108.15)
ñ ïåðñïåêòèâîé ïðîäîëæåíèÿ îíîãî óæå â çîíå ðàâíîâåñèÿ (
108.40 - 107.10 - 105.80) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute.
Ïðè ïðîáîå êîíå÷íîé Shiff Line Minute -
óðîâåíü ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 111.70 -
âàðèàíò ïðîäîëæåíèÿ ðàçâèòèÿ
âîñõîäÿùåãî äâèæåíèÿ âàëþòû "ñòðàíû âîñõîäÿùåãî ñîëíöà" ê öåëÿì:
-
maximum 112.23;
- êîíå÷íàÿ ëèíèÿ FSL Minute (
112.70);
- çîíà ðàâíîâåñèÿ (
113.00 - 114.70 - 116.50) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minor.
Äåòàëè äâèæåíèÿ USD/JPY c 26 ìàðòà 2020 ã. ìîæíî âèäåòü íà àíèìàöèîííîì *.gif ãðàôèêå - îòêðîåòñÿ â îòäåëüíîé âêëàäêå.
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Îáçîð ñîñòàâëåí áåç ó÷åòà íîâîñòíîãî ôîíà, îòêðûòèÿ òîðãîâûõ ñåññèé îñíîâíûõ ôèíàíñîâûõ öåíòðîâ è íå ÿâëÿåòñÿ ðóêîâîäñòâîì ê äåéñòâèþ (âûñòàâëåíèÿ îðäåðîâ "sell" èëè "buy").
Ôîðìóëà ðàñ÷åòà èíäåêñà äîëëàðà:
USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.
ãäå ñòåïåííûå êîýôôèöèåíòû ñîîòâåòñòâóþò âåñàì âàëþò â êîðçèíå:
Åâðî — 57,6 %;
Èåíà — 13,6 %;
Ôóíò ñòåðëèíãîâ — 11,9 %;
Êàíàäñêèé äîëëàð — 9,1 %;
Øâåäñêàÿ êðîíà — 4,2 %;
Øâåéöàðñêèé ôðàíê — 3,6 %.
Ïåðâûé êîýôôèöèåíò â ôîðìóëå ïðèâîäèò çíà÷åíèå èíäåêñà ê 100 íà äàòó íà÷àëà îòñ÷¸òà – ìàðò 1973 ãîäà, êîãäà îñíîâíûå âàëþòû íà÷àëè ñâîáîäíî êîòèðîâàòüñÿ äðóã îòíîñèòåëüíî äðóãà.
ZUP è Âèëû Ýíäðþñà (òåðìèíû, ïîíÿòèÿ, ïàðàìåòðû).
Ìàòåðèàëû äëÿ èçó÷åíèÿ Àíàëèçà ZUP & APL`s.