×òî æäåò îñíîâíûå âàëþòíûå èíñòðóìåíòû â àïðåëå? Âàðèàíòû äâèæåíèÿ îñíîâíûõ âàëþòíûõ èíñòðóìåíòîâ ñ 31 ìàðòà 2020 ã. #USDX, EUR/USD, GBP/USD è USD/JPY - DAILY.
Äîïîëíåíèå ê îáçîðó îò 20:40 2020-03-25 UTC+3
Îïåðàöèîííûé ìàñøòàá Minor (òàéì ôðåéì Daily)
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US Dollar Index
Ñ 31 ìàðòà 2020 ãîäà äâèæåíèå èíäåêñà äîëëàðà #USDX ïðîäîëæèò ñâîå ðàçâèòèå â ãðàíèöàõ çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ (98.75 - 99.90 - 101.10) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minor - ïîäðîáíîñòè îòðàáîòêè óêàçàííûõ âûøå óðîâíåé ïðåäñòàâëåíû íà àíèìàöèîííîì *.gif ãðàôèêå (îòêðîåòñÿ â îòäåëüíîé âêëàäêå).
 ñëó÷àå ïðîáîÿ âåðõíåé ãðàíèöû ISL61.8 çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minor - óðîâåíü ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 101.10 - ñòàíåò âîçìîæíî ïðîäîëæåíèå âîñõîäÿùåãî äâèæåíèÿ èíäåêñà äîëëàðà ê öåëÿì:
- íà÷àëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ SSL Minute (102.20);
- maximum 110.60;
ñ ïåðñïåêòèâîé äîñòèæåíèÿ ïðåäóïðåäèòåëüíîé ëèíèè UWL38.2 (103.80) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute.
Ïðè ïðîáîå íèæíåé ãðàíèöû ISL38.2 çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minor - óðîâåíü ïîääåðæêè 98.75 - áóäåò ïîäòâåðæäåíî, ÷òî äàëåå ðàçâèòèå äâèæåíèÿ #USDX ñòàíåò ïðîèñòåêàòü â çîíå ðàâíîâåñèÿ âèë (99.15 - 97.90 - 96.75) îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute ñ ïåðñïåêòèâîé äîñòèæåíèÿ íà÷àëüíîé ëèíèè SSL (95.20) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minor.
Ðàçìåòêà âàðèàíòîâ äâèæåíèÿ #USDX c 31 ìàðòà 2020 ã. ïîêàçàíà íà àíèìàöèîííîì *.gif ãðàôèêå (îòêðîåòñÿ â îòäåëüíîé âêëàäêå).
![Êóðñ âàëþòû íà 30.03.2020 analysis]()
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Euro vs
US Dollar Åäèíàÿ åâðîïåéñêàÿ âàëþòà
EUR/USD c 31 ìàðòà 2020 ãîäà ïðîäîëæèò
ðàçâèòèå äâèæåíèÿ â çàâèñèìîñòè îò îòðàáîòêè è íàïðàâëåíèÿ ïðîáîÿ ãðàíèö êàíàëà 1/2 Median Line (
1.0880 - 1.0985 - 1.1090) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute -
ïîäðîáíîñòè ïîêàçàíû íà àíèìàöèîííîì *.gif ãðàôèêå (îòêðîåòñÿ â îòäåëüíîé âêëàäêå).
Ïðè ïðîáîå íèæíåé ãðàíèöû êàíàëà 1/2 Median Line âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute -
óðîâåíü ïîääåðæêè 1.0880 - ñòàíåò âîçìîæíî äîñòèæåíèå íà÷àëüíîé ëèíèè SSL Minute (
1.0810) è êîíòðîëüíîé ëèíèè LTL (
1.0790) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minor,
à â ñëó÷àå ïðîáîÿ ýòèõ óðîâíåé íèñõîäÿùåå äâèæåíèå EUR/USD áóäåò íàïðàâëåíî
ê minimum 1.0637.
Ïðîáîé óðîâíÿ ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 1.1090 íà âåðõíåé ãðàíèöå êàíàëà 1/2 Median Line Minute -
âîçîáíîâëåíèå âîñõîäÿùåãî äâèæåíèÿ åäèíîé åâðîïåéñêîé âàëþòû ê ãðàíèöàì çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ (
1.1150 - 1.1320 - 1.1496) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute.
Âàðèàíòû äâèæåíèÿ EUR/USD c 31 ìàðòà 2020 ã. â çàâèñèìîñòè îò îòðàáîòêè êàíàëà 1/2ML Minute ïîêàçàíû íà àíèìàöèîííîì *.gif ãðàôèêå (îòêðîåòñÿ â îòäåëüíîé âêëàäêå).
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Great Britain Pound vs
US Dollar Ðàçâèòèå äâèæåíèÿ âàëþòû Åå Âåëè÷åñòâà
GBP/USD/USD c 31 ìàðòà 2020 ãîäà áóäåò îáóñëîâëåíî îòðàáîòêîé ãðàíèö êàíàëà 1/2 Median Line (
1.2095 - 1.2300 - 1.2525) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute -
äåòàëè ðàçìåòêè äâèæåíèÿ â äàííîì êàíàëå ïîêàçàíû íà àíèìàöèîííîì *.gif ãðàôèêå (îòêðîåòñÿ â îòäåëüíîé âêëàäêå).
Åñëè áóäåò èìåòü ìåñòî áûòü
ïðîáîé íèæíåé ãðàíèöû êàíàëà 1/2 Median Line âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute -
óðîâåíü ïîääåðæêè 1.2095 - òîãäà ñòàíåò àêòóàëüíûì
ðàçâèòèå íèñõîäÿùåãî äâèæåíèÿ GBP/USD ê óðîâíÿì:
-
1.1958 - êîíòðîëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ LTL âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minor;
-
1.1700 - ïðåäóïðåäèòåëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ LWL61.8 Minor;
-
1.1475 - íà÷àëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ SSL Minute.
Ïðîáîé âåðõíåé ãðàíèöû êàíàëà 1/2 Median Line Minute -
óðîâåíü ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 1.2525 - ïîäòâåðäèò
äàëüíåéøåå ðàçâèòèå äâèæåíèÿ âàëþòû Åå Âåëè÷åñòâà â çîíå ðàâíîâåñèÿ (
1.2370 - 1.2675 - 1.2965) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute
ñ âîçìîæíîñòüþ ïðîäîëæåíèÿ îíîãî óæå â êàíàëå 1/2 Median Line (
1.2870 - 1.3150 - 1.3425) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minor.
Âàðèàíòû äâèæåíèÿ GBP/USD c 31 ìàðòà 2020 ã. ñìîòðèì íà àíèìàöèîííîì *.gif ãðàôèêå (îòêðîåòñÿ â îòäåëüíîé âêëàäêå).
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US Dollar vs
Japanesse Yen Îòðàáîòêà è íàïðàâëåíèå ïðîáîÿ ãðàíèö çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ (
105.80 - 107.15 108.50) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute è ñòàíåò îïðåäåëÿòü
ðàçâèòèå äâèæåíèÿ âàëþòû "ñòðàíû âîñõîäÿùåãî ñîëíöà"
USD/JPY c 31 ìàðòà 2020 ã. -
ïîäðîáíîñòè îòðàáîòêè óêàçàííûõ âûøå óðîâíåé ïðåäñòàâëåíû íà àíèìàöèîííîì *.gif ãðàôèêå (îòêðîåòñÿ â îòäåëüíîé âêëàäêå).
 ñëó÷àå ïðîáîÿ âåðõíåé ãðàíèöû ISL61.8 çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute -
óðîâåíü ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 108.50 - ñòàíåò âîçìîæíî ïðîäîëæåíèå
âîñõîäÿùåãî äâèæåíèÿ USD/JPY ê öåëÿì:
- 1/2 Median Line (
109.45) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minor;
- âåðõíÿÿ ãðàíèöà êàíàëà 1/2 Median Line Minor (
110.60);
ñ ïåðñïåêòèâîé (
ïîñëå ïðîáîÿ ýòèõ óðîâíåé ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ) äîñòèæåíèÿ êîíå÷íîé Shiff Line Minute (
111.50) è
maximum 112.25.
Ïðè ïðîáîå íèæíåé ãðàíèöû ISL38.2 çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute -
óðîâåíü ïîääåðæêè 105.80 - ìîæåò èìåòü ìåñòî áûòü
ïðîäîëæåíèå íèñõîäÿùåãî äâèæåíèÿ âàëþòû "ñòðàíû âîñõîäÿùåãî ñîëíöà" ê öåëÿì:
- êîíòðîëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ LTL (
104.40) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minor;
- ïðåäóïðåäèòåëüíàÿ ëèíèè LWL61.8 Minor (
103.10).
Ðàçìåòêà âàðèàíòîâ äâèæåíèÿ USD/JPY c 31 ìàðòà 2020 ã. ïîêàçàíà íà àíèìàöèîííîì *.gif ãðàôèêå (îòêðîåòñÿ â îòäåëüíîé âêëàäêå).
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Îáçîð ñîñòàâëåí áåç ó÷åòà íîâîñòíîãî ôîíà, îòêðûòèÿ òîðãîâûõ ñåññèé îñíîâíûõ ôèíàíñîâûõ öåíòðîâ è íå ÿâëÿåòñÿ ðóêîâîäñòâîì ê äåéñòâèþ (âûñòàâëåíèÿ îðäåðîâ "sell" èëè "buy").
Ôîðìóëà ðàñ÷åòà èíäåêñà äîëëàðà:
USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.
ãäå ñòåïåííûå êîýôôèöèåíòû ñîîòâåòñòâóþò âåñàì âàëþò â êîðçèíå:
Åâðî — 57,6 %;
Èåíà — 13,6 %;
Ôóíò ñòåðëèíãîâ — 11,9 %;
Êàíàäñêèé äîëëàð — 9,1 %;
Øâåäñêàÿ êðîíà — 4,2 %;
Øâåéöàðñêèé ôðàíê — 3,6 %.
Ïåðâûé êîýôôèöèåíò â ôîðìóëå ïðèâîäèò çíà÷åíèå èíäåêñà ê 100 íà äàòó íà÷àëà îòñ÷¸òà – ìàðò 1973 ãîäà, êîãäà îñíîâíûå âàëþòû íà÷àëè ñâîáîäíî êîòèðîâàòüñÿ äðóã îòíîñèòåëüíî äðóãà. Áîëüøå àíàëèòèêè íà ñàéòå InstaForex.
ZUP è Âèëû Ýíäðþñà (òåðìèíû, ïîíÿòèÿ, ïàðàìåòðû).
Ìàòåðèàëû äëÿ èçó÷åíèÿ Àíàëèçà ZUP & APL`s.