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The first phase of the trade agreement between the US and China has been signed, which is certainly a positive factor for the markets. The signing reduces global uncertainty in the short term, and since Trump managed to win, if not an economic, then at least a political victory, the probability of another escalation by the United States is significantly reduced, since this could have a negative impact on the presidential election.
The risk of constantly rising tariffs is eliminated. Despite the fact that most of the previously adopted tariffs remain valid, the United States promised to reduce tariffs for goods in the amount of $ 120 billion from 15% to 7.5% and to refuse to accept higher tariffs in the amount of about $ 160 billion more. He also promised to continue reducing tariffs if the second phase of the transaction is concluded.
What does this situation give the markets besides reducing uncertainty? At a minimum, improvement in the prospects for a recovery in world trade, which means a steady demand for profitable assets is likely. Flight into gold and bonds is postponed - this is the main conclusion. For how long? - there are, of course questions.
The main emphasis in the agreement is on increasing US exports to China, but most structural problems remain in the same places. China's "2025" program, which aimed at overcoming the country's dependence on foreign resources and technologies, will continue. In turn, the rejection of it is absolutely unthinkable for the Chinese side.
On the other hand, macroeconomic data faded into the background. However, they are of some interest. US manufacturing prices showed below-forecast growth in December, reports on retail sales and the dynamics of import and export prices will be issued today, and in fact the dollar has not added any arguments for further strengthening.
EUR/USD
The apparent growth of PMI indices is gradually leading to changes in the real sector of the economy, industrial production grew by 0.2% in November, and the annual decline fell to -1.5%. As we can see, both indicators are worse than expected, but better than October.
Meanwhile, Christine Lagarde will make a big speech in Frankfurt in the evening. Yesterday, the euro reacted with growth to the conclusion of the agreement, and today, the general mood remains bullish. EUR/USD returned above 1.1150, but resistance 1.116 is too weak. Thus, growth is likely during the day with an eye on the resistance zone 1.1180 / 90.
GBPUSD
The consumer price index in the UK fell to a minimum over the past 3 years. In December, price growth was zero. Despite Christmas sales and traditional activity growth year-on-year, the growth slowed to 1.3% from 1.5% a month earlier.
The probability of a rate cut by the Bank of England at a January meeting exceeded 70%, and a BoE representative Saunders, who has been calling for monetary policy easing since November, called for an immediate rate cut once again, since, in his opinion, this would not be a preventive measure, but most of it that is there is an urgent need, since the risks of the "inflation trap" will increase otherwise. His words echo the concerns expressed by the other three Cabinet members last week.
The yield of 10-year UK GKOs, which were above 0.8% in early January, declined to 0.645% on Thursday morning. This is a noticeably stronger drop relative to 10-year US treasures and indicates a growing spread, despite the fact that the market is also leaning towards Fed rate cuts.
As a result, inflation is unlikely to begin recovery in the 2nd quarter, given the likely decline in prices for electricity and natural gas, as well as a rather modest pound rollback from the lows reached in the fall.
Technically, the pound looks neutral, volatility has fallen noticeably after a stormy December, and so, the chances of resuming growth will look weak given the fundamental data. The equilibrium zone is 1.2980 / 3000, which is slightly lower than current levels. Therefore, there is likely a slight decrease during the day and an attempt to test the trend line 1.2950 / 60.
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