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19.08.202012:17 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: GBP/USD: Brexit is back in the game, the pound's growth can be interrupted at any time

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Exchange Rates 19.08.2020 analysis

The GBP/USD pair f was able to reach the level of 1.3200 for the first time in more than five months, thanks to continued sales of the US dollar.

The dollar was hit again this week. On Monday, the yield on 10-year US government bonds fell nearly 4%, continuing to decline on Tuesday. Against this background, the USD index dropped to its lowest values since May 2018, around 92.1 points.

The scheduled release of minutes from the July FOMC meeting on Wednesday is unlikely to help the dollar and Treasury yields.

Since the outbreak of COVID-19 in the US began in March, the Fed has pledged to keep interest rates near zero until the country recovers from the effects of the pandemic.

The dollar is also under pressure from continuing doubts about the US economic recovery.

The United States continues to discuss the next stimulus package. The White House agrees to allocate $ 1 trillion for this purpose, while the Democrats believe that at least $ 2 trillion is required.

According to specialists from Credit Suisse, the GBP/USD pair made a clear breakdown of the long-term downward trend from 2015, and then, after a short pause, easily broke through the resistance at 1.3200-1.3215.

"Now the bulls can set a course for the important resistance area 1.3514-1.3640. We expect this area to survive the first test." The bank believes that the pair will find support at 1.3186 on pullbacks.

Meanwhile, ING strategists warn that the growth of the pound amid a weakening US dollar may be interrupted at any time, as Brexit returns to the focus of market participants.

"Too reckless investors in GBP may face increasing Brexit stress in the coming weeks," they said.

"The sterling's recent strong performance and its resilience to the disappointing UK stats were probably based on the fact that the Brexit story faded into the background. However, we see the risk that the market will begin to return quotes to previous levels in the absence of a trade agreement between London and Brussels." ING said.

It can be recalled that the United Kingdom officially left the EU in January and is now in a transition period, which should end at the end of this year.

The EU believes that negotiators should complete any deal by October so that the 27 countries of the bloc could ratify it.

Viktor Isakov
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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