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Last Friday, equity indices closed sharply higher. The S&P 500 rose by 1.47%, while the Nasdaq 100 jumped by 2.18%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average strengthened by 2.47%.
A broad-based rally in risk assets, from technology stocks to Bitcoin, lifted Asian equity markets today as Friday's advance on Wall Street carried over. Gold and silver also gained. The MSCI Asia Pacific index rose by 2.4% to a record high, and the Nikkei 225 advanced by 5.7% following Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's decisive electoral victory. The Kospi, a prime example of AI-linked investment, jumped by 4.2%.
The rally looks set to continue as futures on European equity indices are trading higher. As sentiment improves, Bitcoin has recovered from its decline, and gold and silver — which have risen with equities this year — have also moved higher.
Meanwhile, China urged banks to limit use of US Treasuries, citing concerns about concentration risks and market volatility. Treasuries continued to fall, with the 10-year benchmark yield rising four basis points to 4.24%.
As US investors rotated away from overvalued tech names on Friday, the Dow Jones topped the 50,000 mark. Monday's rally will help determine the market's near-term trajectory as many participants prepare for key US inflation and labor market data. Re-pricing of AI risks and the scale of related investments will also continue.
SGMC Capital Pte said that the recovery appeared to be driven less by a pursuit of risk and more by a reduction in uncertainty. The company noted strong price action on Friday, attributing it to clearer political outcomes in Japan and Thailand that bolstered investor sentiment. SGMC Capital also added that Asia would appear more appealing if global volatility continued to subside.
Following Takaichi's victory, the yen strengthened against the US dollar, pulling back from levels that were thought to risk prompting fresh intervention. Traders will continue to watch the 159.45 per dollar level reached in mid-January — the weakest yen since 2024 and a point where currency intervention could be possible.
In commodity markets, Brent crude fell by 0.9% as Middle East tensions eased.
As for the technical outlook for the S&P 500, the immediate task for buyers today is to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,946. Breaking above that level would signal upside and open the path to $6,961. An additional priority for bulls is to secure control above $6,975, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In case of a downside move amid waning risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,930. A break below that level could quickly push the instrument back to $6,914 and open the way to $6,896.
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