Ðàññìîòðèì êîìïëåêñíî âàðèàíòû ðàçâèòèÿ äâèæåíèÿ âàëþòíûõ èíñòðóìåíòîâ #USDX vs EUR/USD vs GBP/USD ñ 26 èþëÿ 2019 ã.
Ïðåäûäóùèé êîìïëåêñíûé îáçîð îò 23.07.2019 20:31 UTC+3.
Minute (h4)
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US dollar Index
Äâèæåíèå èíäåêñà äîëëàðà #USDX ñ 26 èþëÿ 2019 ã. ñòàíåò ïðîèñòåêàòü â çàâèñèìîñòè îò íàïðàâëåíèÿ ïðîáîÿ äèàïàçîíà:
- óðîâåíü ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 97.75 (íà÷àëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ SSL âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette);
- óðîâåíü ïîääåðæêè 97.55 ( âåðõíÿÿ ãðàíèöà êàíàëà 1/2 Median Line Minuette.
Ïðîáîé âåðõíåé ãðàíèöû êàíàëà 1/2 Median Line Minuette (
óðîâåíü ïîääåðæêè 97.55) îïðåäåëèò ðàçâèòèå äâèæåíèÿ
#USDX â êàíàëå 1/2 Median Line Minuette (
97.55 - 97.45 - 97.35), à ïðè ïðîáîå
íèæíåé ãðàíèöû (
97.35)
ýòîãî êàíàëà íèñõîäÿùåå äâèæåíèå èíäåêñà äîëëàðà ìîæåò áûòü ïðîäîëæåíî ê ñðåäèííîé ëèíèè Median Line (
97.25) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute è çîíå ðàâíîâåñèÿ (
97.21 - 97.05 - 96.88) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette.
Ïðè ïðîáîå
óðîâíÿ ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 97.75 íà íà÷àëüíîé ëèíèè SSL âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette ñ ïîñëåäóþùèì îáíîâëåíèåì ëîêàëüíîãî maximum
97.82 âîñõîäÿùåå äâèæåíèå
#USDX ìîæåò áûòü ïðîäîëæåíî ê öåëÿì - êîíòðîëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ UTL Minuette (
97.95) - ïðåäóïðåäèòåëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ UWL61.8 Minuette (98.10).
Ïîäðîáíîñòè äâèæåíèÿ #USDX ïðåäñòàâëåíû íà àíèìàöèîííîì ãðàôèêå .
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Euro vs
US Dollar Òàê æå êàê è â ñëó÷àå ñ èíäåêñîì äîëëàðà, ðàçâèòèå äâèæåíèÿ åäèíîé åâðîïåéñêîé âàëþòû
EUR/USD ñ 26 èþëÿ 2019 ã. áóäåò
îáóñëîâëåíî íàïðàâëåíèåì ïðîáîÿ äèàïàçîíà:
- óðîâåíü ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 1.1160 (íèæíÿÿ ãðàíèöà êàíàëà 1/2 Median Line âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette);
- óðîâåíü ïîääåðæêè 1.1121 (íà÷àëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ SSL âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette).
Ïðîáîé
óðîâíÿ ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 1.1160 ñäåëàåò âîçìîæíûì ðàçâèòèå äâèæåíèÿ
åäèíîé åâðîïåéñêîé âàëþòû â ãðàíèöàõ êàíàëà 1/2 Median Line (
1.1160 - 1.1170 - 1.1180) è çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ (
1.1185 - 1.1205 - 1.1222) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette.
 ñëó÷àå ïîäòâåðæäåíèÿ ïðîáîÿ íà÷àëüíîé ëèíèè SSL (
1.1121) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette, íèñõîäÿùåå äâèæåíèå
EUR/USD ìîæåò áûòü ïðîäîëæåíî ê öåëÿì -
minimum 1.1107 - ïðåäóïðåäèòåëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ UWL38.2 (
1.1052) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute.
Ïîäðîáíîñòè äâèæåíèÿ ïîêàçàíû íà ãðàôèêå.
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Great Britain Pound vs
US Dollar À âîò ðàçâèòèå äâèæåíèÿ Âàëþòû Åå Âåëè÷åñòâà
GBP/USD ñ 26 èþëÿ 2019 ã. áóäåò
îáóñëîâëåíî îòðàáîòêîé è íàïðàâëåíèåì ïðîáîÿ ãðàíèö êàíàëà 1/2 Median Line (
1.2530 - 1.2500 - 1.2460) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette. (
âàðèàíòû äâèæåíèÿ âíóòðè ýòîãî êàíàëà ïîêàçàíû íà àíèìàöèîííîì ãðàôèêå).
Åñëè áóäåò ïðîáèò
óðîâåíü ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 1.2530 íà âåðõíåé ãðàíèöå êàíàëà 1/2 Median Line Minuette, âîñõîäÿùåå äâèæåíèå
GBP/USD ìîæåò áûòü ïðîäîëæåíî ê öåëÿì - íèæíÿÿ ãðàíèöà ISL38.2 (
1.2615) çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette -
êîíå÷íàÿ Shiff Line Minute (
1.2620) - íèæíÿÿ ãðàíèöà ISL38.2 (
1.2645) çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute.
Ïðîáîé íèæíåé ãðàíèöû êàíàëà 1/2 Median Line Minuette (
óðîâåíü ïîääåðæêè 1.2460) îïðåäåëèò äàëüíåéøåå ðàçâèòèå äâèæåíèÿ
åäèíîé åâðîïåéñêîé âàëþòû â êàíàëå 1/2 Median Line (
1.2460 - 1.2405 - 1.2350) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute.
Ïîäðîáíîñòè äâèæåíèÿ GBP/USD ïðåäñòàâëåíû íà àíèìàöèîííîì ãðàôèêå .
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Îáçîð ñîñòàâëåí áåç ó÷åòà íîâîñòíîãî ôîíà, îòêðûòèÿ òîðãîâûõ ñåññèé îñíîâíûõ ôèíàíñîâûõ öåíòðîâ è íå ÿâëÿåòñÿ ðóêîâîäñòâîì ê äåéñòâèþ (âûñòàâëåíèÿ îðäåðîâ "sell" èëè "buy").
Ôîðìóëà ðàñ÷åòà èíäåêñà äîëëàðà:
USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.
ãäå ñòåïåííûå êîýôôèöèåíòû ñîîòâåòñòâóþò âåñàì âàëþò â êîðçèíå:
Åâðî — 57,6 %;
Èåíà — 13,6 %;
Ôóíò ñòåðëèíãîâ — 11,9 %;
Êàíàäñêèé äîëëàð — 9,1 %;
Øâåäñêàÿ êðîíà — 4,2 %;
Øâåéöàðñêèé ôðàíê — 3,6 %.
Ïåðâûé êîýôôèöèåíò â ôîðìóëå ïðèâîäèò çíà÷åíèå èíäåêñà ê 100 íà äàòó íà÷àëà îòñ÷¸òà – ìàðò 1973 ãîäà, êîãäà îñíîâíûå âàëþòû íà÷àëè ñâîáîäíî êîòèðîâàòüñÿ äðóã îòíîñèòåëüíî äðóãà.
Ìàòåðèàëû äëÿ èçó÷åíèÿ Àíàëèçà ZUP & APL`s.