Ðàññìîòðèì êîìïëåêñíî, êàê ñòàíåò ïðîèñòåêàòü ðàçâèòèå äâèæåíèÿ âàëþòíûõ èíñòðóìåíòîâ #USDX, EUR/USD, GBP/USD è USD/JPY c 20 ñåíòÿáðÿ 2019 ã.
Minute (òàéì ôðåéì h4)
Äîïîëíåíèå ê ïðåäûäóùåìó îáçîðó ïî #USDX, EUR/USD, GBP/USD è USD/JPY îò 13.09.2019 ã. 17:06 UTC+3
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US dollar Index
Äàëüíåéøåå ðàçâèòèå äâèæåíèÿ èíäåêñà äîëëàðà #USDX ñ 20 ñåíòÿáðÿ 2019 ã. áóäåò îáóñëîâëåíî íàïðàâëåíèåì ïðîáîÿ äèàïàçîíà:
- óðîâåíü ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 98.35 (íèæíÿÿ ãðàíèöà ISL61.8 çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette);
- óðîâåíü ïîääåðæêè 98.15 (ëèíèÿ ðåàêöèè RL261.8 âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette).
Ïðîáîé ëèíèè ðåàêöèè RL261.8 Minuette (
óðîâåíü ïîääåðæêè 98.15) îïðåäåëèò ïðîäîëæåíèå ðàçâèòèÿ
íèñõîäÿùåãî äâèæåíèå èíäåêñà äîëëàðà ê öåëÿì -
ëîêàëüíûé ìèíèìóì 97.86 - êîíå÷íàÿ ëèíèÿ FSL Minuette (
97.70) - âåðõíÿÿ ãðàíèöà ISL38.2 (
97.55) çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute.
 ñëó÷àå ïðîáîÿ ISL61.8 Minuette (
óðîâåíü ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 98.35) ñäåëàåò âîçìîæíûì ðàçâèòèå äâèæåíèÿ
#USDX â ãðàíèöàõ çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ (
98.35 - 98.55 - 98.75) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette è êàíàëà 1/2 Median Line (
98.50 - 98.70 - 98.95) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute ñ ïåðñïåêòèâîé
îáíîâëåíèÿ maximum`s (
99.10 - 99.37).
Ïîäðîáíîñòè äâèæåíèÿ #USDX ïðåäñòàâëåíû íà ãðàôèêå.
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Euro vs
US Dollar Ðàçâèòèå äâèæåíèÿ åäèíîé åâðîïåéñêîé âàëþòû
EUR/USD ñ 20 ñåíòÿáðÿ 2019 ã. òàêæå
áóäåò îáóñëîâëåíî íàïðàâëåíèåì ïðîáîÿ äèàïàçîíà:
- óðîâåíü ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 1.1090 ïðåäóïðåäèòåëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ UWL38.2 çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette;
- óðîâåíü ïîääåðæêè 1.1060 âåðõíÿÿ ãðàíèöà êàíàëà 1/2 Median Line Minuette.
Ïðîáîé ïðåäóïðåäèòåëüíîé ëèíèè UWL38.2 Minuette (
óðîâåíü ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 1.1125) - âàðèàíò ðàçâèòèÿ
âîñõîäÿùåãî äâèæåíèÿ EUR/USD ê öåëÿì -
ëîêàëüíûé maximum 1.1110 - êîíòðîëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ UTL (
1.1130) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette - çîíà ðàâíîâåñèÿ (
1.1145 - 1.1200 - 1.1250) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute.
Ïðîáîé
óðîâíÿ ïîääåðæêè 1.1060) îïðåäåëèò ðàçâèòèå äâèæåíèÿ
åäèíîé åâðîïåéñêîé âàëþòû â ãðàíèöàõ êàíàëîâ 1/2 Median Line âèë îïåðàöèîííûõ ìàñøòàáîâ - Minuette (
1.1060 - 1.1040 - 1.1017) è Minute (
1.1017 - 1.0990 - 1.0960).
Äåòàëè âàðèàíòîâ äâèæåíèÿ EUR/USD ïîêàçàíû íà ãðàôèêå.
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Great Britain Pound vs
US Dollar Ðàçâèòèå äâèæåíèÿ âàëþòû Åå Âåëè÷åñòâà
GBP/USD ñ 20 ñåíòÿáðÿ 2019 ã.
áóäåò îãðàíè÷åíî çîíîé ðàâíîâåñèÿ (
1.2430 -1 1.2580 - 1.2730) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute
ñ ó÷åòîì îòðàáîòêè ëèíèé âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette -
ðàçìåòêà ýòîé îòðàáîòêè ïðåäñòàâëåíà íà ãðàôèêå.
Åñëè áóäåò ïðîáèòà âåðõíÿÿ ãðàíèöà ISL61.8 (
óðîâåíü ñîïðîòèâëåíèå 1.2730) çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute, òîãäà ñòàíåò âîçìîæíî äîñòèæåíèå ïðåäóïðåäèòåëüíûõ ëèíèé UWL100.0 (
1.2770) è UWL161.8 (
1.2950) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette.
Íî áîëåå âåðîÿòíûì âèäèòñÿ ïðîáîé íèæíåé ãðàíèöû ISL38.2 (
óðîâåíü ïîääåðæêè 1.2430) çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute, è â ýòîì ñëó÷àå
íèñõîäÿùåå äâèæåíèå âàëþòû Åå Âåëè÷åñòâà ìîæåò áûòü ïðîäîëæåíî
ê ãðàíèöàì êàíàëîâ 1/2 Median Line âèë îïåðàöèîííûõ ìàñøòàáîâ - Minuette (
1.2400 - 1.2360 - 1.2310) è Minute (
1.2330 - 1.2245 - 1.2155).
Ïîäðîáíîñòè äâèæåíèÿ GBP/USD ìîæíî âèäåòü íà ãðàôèêå.
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US Dollar vs
Japanese Yen À âîò ðàçâèòèå äâèæåíèÿ âàëþòû "ñòðàíû âîñõîäÿùåãî ñîëíöà"
USD/JPY ñ 20 ñåíòÿáðÿ 2019 ã.
áóäåò îáóñëîâëåíî îòðàáîòêîé è íàïðàâëåíèåì ïðîáîÿ ãðàíèö êàíàëà 1/2 Median Line (
108.20 - 108.00 - 107.85) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette (
äåòàëè ñìîòðèì íà ãðàôèêå).
Ïðîáîé íèæíåé ãðàíèöû êàíàëà 1/2 Median Line Minuette (
óðîâåíü ïîääåðæêè 107.85) - âàðèàíò äîñòèæåíèÿ
USD/JPY ãðàíèö çîí ðàâíîâåñèÿ âèë îïåðàöèîííûõ ìàñøòàáîâ - Minuette (
107.75 - 107.50 - 107.25) è Minute (
107.60 - 107.00 - 106.40).
Ïðè ïðîáîå âåðõíåé ãðàíèöû êàíàëà 1/2 Median Line Minuette (
óðîâåíü ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 108.20) ñäåëàåò àêòóàëüíûì âîçîáíîâëåíèå
âîñõîäÿùåãî äâèæåíèÿ âàëþòû "ñòðàíû âîñõîäÿùåãî ñîëíöà" ê öåëÿì - íà÷àëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ SSL (
108.60) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette - êîíòðîëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ UTL Minuette (
108.70) -
maximum 109.33.
Ïîäðîáíîñòè äâèæåíèÿ USD/JPY ñìîòðèì íà ãðàôèêå.
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Îáçîð ñîñòàâëåí áåç ó÷åòà íîâîñòíîãî ôîíà, îòêðûòèÿ òîðãîâûõ ñåññèé îñíîâíûõ ôèíàíñîâûõ öåíòðîâ è íå ÿâëÿåòñÿ ðóêîâîäñòâîì ê äåéñòâèþ (âûñòàâëåíèÿ îðäåðîâ "sell" èëè "buy").
Ôîðìóëà ðàñ÷åòà èíäåêñà äîëëàðà:
USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.
ãäå ñòåïåííûå êîýôôèöèåíòû ñîîòâåòñòâóþò âåñàì âàëþò â êîðçèíå:
Åâðî — 57,6 %;
Èåíà — 13,6 %;
Ôóíò ñòåðëèíãîâ — 11,9 %;
Êàíàäñêèé äîëëàð — 9,1 %;
Øâåäñêàÿ êðîíà — 4,2 %;
Øâåéöàðñêèé ôðàíê — 3,6 %.
Ïåðâûé êîýôôèöèåíò â ôîðìóëå ïðèâîäèò çíà÷åíèå èíäåêñà ê 100 íà äàòó íà÷àëà îòñ÷¸òà – ìàðò 1973 ãîäà, êîãäà îñíîâíûå âàëþòû íà÷àëè ñâîáîäíî êîòèðîâàòüñÿ äðóã îòíîñèòåëüíî äðóãà.
Ìàòåðèàëû äëÿ èçó÷åíèÿ Àíàëèçà ZUP & APL`s.