Ãîëîñîâàíèå ïî Brexit ñîñòîÿëîñü... ×òî äàëüøå? - Êîìïëåêñíûé àíàëèç âàðèàíòîâ äâèæåíèÿ - h4 - #USDX, EUR/USD, GBP/USD è USD/JPY ñ 24 îêòÿáðÿ 2019 ã.
Minute (òàéì ôðåéì h4)
Äîïîëíåíèå ê ïðåäûäóùåìó îáçîðó ïî #USDX, EUR/USD, GBP/USD è USD/JPY îò 21.10.2019 ã. 17:40 UTC+3
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US dollar Index
Ñ 24 îêòÿáðÿ 2019 ã. äâèæåíèå èíäåêñà äîëëàðà #USDX ïðîäîëæèòñÿ â çîíå ðàâíîâåñèÿ (98.05 - 97.70 - 97.30) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute (äåòàëè ïîêàçàíû íà ãðàôèêå).
Ïîñëåäîâàòåëüíûé ïðîáîé óðîâíåé ïîääåðæêè :
- 97.30 (íèæíÿÿ ãðàíèöà ISL61.8 çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute);
- 97.20 (íà÷àëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ SSL âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette);
- 97.15 (ëîêàëüíûé minimum);
- 97.00 (êîíòðîëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ LTL Minuette);
îïðåäåëèò ïðîäîëæåíèå íèñõîäÿùåãî äâèæåíèÿ èíäåêñà äîëëàðà ê ïðåäóïðåäèòåëüíûì ëèíèÿì - LWL38.2 (96.70) è LWL61.8 (96.35) - âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette.
 ñëó÷àå ïðîáîÿ âåðõíåé ãðàíèöû ISL38.2 (óðîâåíü ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 98.05) çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute ñòàíåò àêòóàëüíûì ðàçâèòèå äâèæåíèÿ #USDX ê ãðàíèöàì çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ (98.25 - 98.60 - 98.95) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette è êàíàëà 1/2 Median Line Minute (98.85 - 99.10 - 99.30).
Ïîäðîáíîñòè äâèæåíèÿ #USDX ïðåäñòàâëåíû íà ãðàôèêå.
![Êóðñ âàëþòû íà 23.10.2019 analysis]()
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Euro vs
US Dollar Äâèæåíèå åäèíîé åâðîïåéñêîé âàëþòû
EUR/USD ñ 24 îêòÿáðÿ 2019 ã. òàê æå
ñòàíåò îïðåäåëÿòüñÿ îòðàáîòêîé è íàïðàâëåíèåì ïðîáîÿ ãðàíèö çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ (
1.1180 - 1.1125 - 1.1075) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute (
ðàçìåòêà îòðàáîòêè óêàçàííûõ âûøå óðîâíåé ïîêàçàíà íà àíèìàöèîííîì ãðàôèêå).
Ñîâìåñòíûé ïðîáîé
óðîâíåé ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ :
-
1.1180 (âåðõíÿÿ ãðàíèöà ISL61.8 çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute);
-
1.1188 (êîíòðîëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ UTL âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette);
ñäåëàåò âîçìîæíûì ïðîäîëæåíèå ðàçâèòèÿ
âîñõîäÿùåãî äâèæåíèÿ åäèíîé åâðîïåéñêîé âàëþòû ê öåëÿì - ïðåäóïðåäèòåëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ UWL38.2 Minuette (
1.1235) -
ëîêàëüíûé maximum 1.1250 - ïðåäóïðåäèòåëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ UWL61.8 Minuette (
1.1275).
Ïðîáîé íèæíåé ãðàíèöû ISL38.2 (
óðîâåíü ïîääåðæêè 1.1075) çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute - ïðîäîëæåíèå
íèñõîäÿùåãî äâèæåíèÿ EUR/USD ê öåëÿì -
êîíå÷íàÿ Shiff Line Minute (
1.1055) - çîíà ðàâíîâåñèÿ (
1.1030 - 1.0990 - 1.0945) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette.
Äåòàëè âàðèàíòîâ äâèæåíèÿ EUR/USD ïîêàçàíû íà ãðàôèêå.
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Great Britain Pound vs
US Dollar Âàëþòà Åå Âåëè÷åñòâà
GBP/USD ñ 24 îêòÿáðÿ 2019 ã. ñòàíåò ðàçâèâàòü
äâèæåíèå â çàâèñèìîñòè îò îòðàáîòêè è íàïðàâëåíèÿ ïðîáîÿ äèàïàçîíà:
- óðîâåíü ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 1.2935 (êîíå÷íàÿ Shiff Line Minute);
- óðîâåíü ïîääåðæêè 1.2840 (ëèíèÿ ðåàêöèè RL23.6 âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette ).
Ïðîáîé
êîíå÷íîé Shiff Line Minute (
óðîâåíü ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 1.2935) - âàðèàíò âîçîáíîâëåíèÿ
âîñõîäÿùåãî äâèæåíèÿ GBP/USD öåëÿìè êîòîðîãî ñòàíóò - âåðõíÿÿ ãðàíèöà ISL61.8 (
1.3012 -
ëîêàëüíûé maximum) çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute - êîíòðîëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ UTL Minuette (
1.3060) - ïðåäóïðåäèòåëüíûå ëèíèè - UWL38.2 (
1.3170) è UWL61.8 (
1.3265) - âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette.
Ñîâìåñòíûé ïðîáîé
óðîâíåé ïîääåðæêè :
-
1.2840 (ëèíèÿ ðåàêöèè RL23.6 âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette);
-
1.2820 (
ñðåäèííàÿ ëèíèÿ Median Line âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute);
âàðèàíò ðàçâèòèÿ
íèñõîäÿùåãî äâèæåíèÿ âàëþòû Åå Âåëè÷åñòâà ê ãðàíèöàì çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ (
1.2705 - 1.2610 - 1.2520) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette.
Ïîäðîáíîñòè äâèæåíèÿ GBP/USD ìîæíî âèäåòü íà ãðàôèêå.
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US Dollar vs
Japanese Yen Âàëþòà "ñòðàíû âîñõîäÿùåãî ñîëíöà"
USD/JPY ñ 24 îêòÿáðÿ 2019 ã. ñòàíåò ðàçâèâàòü ñâîå äâèæåíèå â çàâèñèìîñòè
îò íàïðàâëåíèÿ ïðîáîÿ äèàïàçîíà:
- óðîâåíü ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 108.55 (íà÷àëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ SSL âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette);
- óðîâåíü ïîääåðæêè 108.45 (âåðõíÿÿ ãðàíèöà ISL61.8 çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette).
Ïðîáîé âåðõíåé ãðàíèöû ISL61.8 (
óðîâåíü ïîääåðæêè 108.45) çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute îïðåäåëèò äâèæåíèå âàëþòû "ñòðàíû âîñõîäÿùåãî ñîëíöà" ê ãðàíèöàì êàíàëà 1/2 Median Line Minuette (
108.30 - 108.10 - 108.10) ñ ïåðñïåêòèâîé äîñòèæåíèÿ íèæíåé ãðàíèöû ISL38.2 (
107.45) çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minute è âåðõíåé ãðàíèöå ISL38.2 (
107.10) çîíû ðàâíîâåñèÿ âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette.
Ïðîáîé íà÷àëüíîé ëèíèè SSL (
óðîâåíü ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ 108.55) âèë îïåðàöèîííîãî ìàñøòàáà Minuette ñäåëàåò àêòóàëüíûì ðàçâèòèå
âîñõîäÿùåãî äâèæåíèÿ USD/JPY ê öåëÿì -
ëîêàëüíûé maximum 108.95 - êîíòðîëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ UTL Minuette (
109.15) - ïðåäóïðåäèòåëüíàÿ ëèíèÿ UWL61.8 Minuette (
109.50).
Ïîäðîáíîñòè äâèæåíèÿ USD/JPY ñìîòðèì íà ãðàôèêå.
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Îáçîð ñîñòàâëåí áåç ó÷åòà íîâîñòíîãî ôîíà, îòêðûòèÿ òîðãîâûõ ñåññèé îñíîâíûõ ôèíàíñîâûõ öåíòðîâ è íå ÿâëÿåòñÿ ðóêîâîäñòâîì ê äåéñòâèþ (âûñòàâëåíèÿ îðäåðîâ "sell" èëè "buy").
Ôîðìóëà ðàñ÷åòà èíäåêñà äîëëàðà:
USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.
ãäå ñòåïåííûå êîýôôèöèåíòû ñîîòâåòñòâóþò âåñàì âàëþò â êîðçèíå:
Åâðî — 57,6 %;
Èåíà — 13,6 %;
Ôóíò ñòåðëèíãîâ — 11,9 %;
Êàíàäñêèé äîëëàð — 9,1 %;
Øâåäñêàÿ êðîíà — 4,2 %;
Øâåéöàðñêèé ôðàíê — 3,6 %.
Ïåðâûé êîýôôèöèåíò â ôîðìóëå ïðèâîäèò çíà÷åíèå èíäåêñà ê 100 íà äàòó íà÷àëà îòñ÷¸òà – ìàðò 1973 ãîäà, êîãäà îñíîâíûå âàëþòû íà÷àëè ñâîáîäíî êîòèðîâàòüñÿ äðóã îòíîñèòåëüíî äðóãà.
Ìàòåðèàëû äëÿ èçó÷åíèÿ Àíàëèçà ZUP & APL`s.