17.01.201907:21 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for January 17, 2019

Análisis a largo plazo

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AUD/USD has been quite impulsive amid the bullish momentum after breaking above 0.7050 area with a daily close recently. USD has been struggling to regain momentum after the strong impulsive bearish rejection earlier which pushed the price higher in a non-volatile manner.

Australian economic reports published recently have been revealed mixed readings which made the currency lose momentum against USD, with bullish pressure dominating. Recently, Westpac Consumer Sentiment report was published with a significant decrease to -4.7% from the previous value of 0.1% which lead to stable bearish pressure, resulting in a bearish daily close yesterday. Despite a partial government shutdown in the US for 26 days in row, USD managed to gain some momentum against AUD. Today Australia's MI Inflation Expectations report was published with a decrease to 3.5% from the previous value of 4.0% and Home Loans decreased to -0.9% from the previous value of 2.1% which was expected to decrease to -1.5%.

After 4 rate hikes by the Federal Reserve during 2018, investors currently expect the FED to pause in the cycle of monetary tightening this year. The reason is that a too fast pace of monetary tightening may bring severe fallout to the economy in the long run. US Treasury Yields and Government Bond Yields have been rising with an average of 2.50% which provide USD with support. Today US Philly FED Manufacturing Index report is going to be published which is expected to climb to 9.7 points from the previous value of 9.4, Unemployment Claims is expected to have negative outcome of increase to 219k from the previous figure of 216k, Natural Gas Storage is expected to increase to -73B from the previous figure of -91B. Besides, FOMC Member Quarles is going to speak today about further monetary policy. He is expected to express the hawkish stance which will prop up USD momentum.

Meanwhile, USD is currently regaining momentum against AUD which is expected to sustain further in the coming days. Until Australia comes up with sound economic data and while USD is affected by the shutdown and interest rate pause, no strong bullish momentum is expected in the short term.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently being held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA as support while pushing lower since the rejection off the 0.7230 area with a daily close. The price has formed Bearish Convergence which is expected to generate further bearish pressure with a target towards 0.7000-50 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 0.7500 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 0.7000-50, 0.7100

RESISTANCE: 0.7230, 0.7350

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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