17.01.201907:55 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Fundamental Analysis of AUDJPY for January 17, 2019

Análisis a largo plazo

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AUD/JPY has been consolidating at the edge of 78.50 area for a few days in a row. The price is expected to sink lower towards 75.00 area in the coming days. Despite mixed economic reports from Japan and negative expectations of upcoming reports, JPY managed to sustain the bearish pressure it had over AUD. This indicates that the bearish momentum will continue to push the price much lower.

After the drastic fall towards 70.00 area recently, AUD managed to regain momentum over JPY which was quite remarkable. Australian economic reports published recently have revealed mixed figures. Recently, Westpac Consumer Sentiment report was published with a significant decrease to -4.7 from the previous value of 0.1 which trapped bullish pressure. This aroused bearish sentiment in the market. Today Australia MI Inflation Expectations report was published with a decrease to 3.5% from the previous value of 4.0% and Home Loans decreased to -0.9% from the previous value of 2.1% which was expected to decrease to -1.5%.

On the other hand, Japan's Government was recently shocked with report of Japanese Workers Monthly Wages being underestimated by 0.6% on average in the 2012-2018 period due to a faulty method. The faulty report misguided Japan's policies set by Prime Minister Abe and left policymakers unaware about this factor, thus affecting the overall sustainable economic growth. Today, BOJ Governor Kuroda warned about the Central Bank's evaluation for the unconventional monetary policy steps as benefits and side effects can differ from the conventional policy. Kuroda is currently concerned about falling fund demand as well which is keeping the interest rate at record lows consistently for long. Japan's financial system could become less stable if things do not go as planned. Ahead of National Core CPI to be published tomorrow with expectation of a decrease to 0.8% from the previous value of 0.9% and Revised Industrial Production to be unchanged at -1.1%, JPY is currently residing under dilemma of establishing a definite momentum in the market.

Meanwhile, AUD is currently the weaker currency in the pair in light of mixed economic reports and no favor from market participants whereas JPY is propped up by optimism and action plans to be followed but with certain risks, resulting in improving market sentiment as investors expect economic growth.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite indecisive and corrective while residing below 78.50 area with a daily close, which is expected to push lower towards 75.00 support area in the coming days. The price has recently formed Bearish Divergence which also indicates certain bearish pressure in the coming days. As the price remains below 78.50 area with a daily close, further bearish momentum is expected in this pair.

SUPPORT: 70.00, 75.00

RESISTANCE: 78.50, 79.50, 80.00

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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