01.07.202507:16 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Does Oil Prices & Ceasefire Will Make USD/JPY Under Pressure? Tuesday, July 01, 2025.

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USD/JPY – Tuesday, July 01 2025

Although the potential of USD/JPY still shows weakness, there is a potential for USD/JPY to strengthen temporarily to test the PIVOT level as Resistance due to the price of Rubber and Crude Oil commodities which are still fluctuating along with geopolitical conditions.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 144.175.

2. Resistance. 1 : 144.599.

3. Pivot : 144.191.

4. Support. 1 : 143.615.

5. Support. 2 : 143.207.

Tactical Scenario

Pressure Prone Zone: If USD/JPY strengthens temporarily and is stuck at the level of 144.191, then USD/JPY has the potential to weaken again down to the level of 143.615.

Momentum Extension Bias: If it successfully breaks through and closes below the Support level. 1 then there is a potential for continued weakening to the level of 143,207 if volatility and strengthening momentum support.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision

The weakening bias will be held back if the price breaks through and closes below the level of 144,175.

Technical Summary

The condition of the EMA 50 which is below the EMA 100 (Death Cross) and the RSI (14) which is at the level of 47.01 (Neutral-Bearish) although it seems to be trying to break through above the level of 50, but if the RSI (14) and the price movement of USD/JPY can successfully break through and close below its Trendline, then USD/JPY will most likely continue its weakening.

Economic News Release Agenda:

1. Fed Chair Powell Speaks - 20:30 WIB.

2. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun) - 20:45 WIB.

3. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) - 21:00 WIB.

4. ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jun) - 21:00 WIB.

5. JOLTS - Job Openings (May) - 21:00 WIB.

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