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The Loonie has rallied again versus USD despite some poor data from Canada. USD/CAD dropped only because the US dollar weakened once again amid the Fed's measures. The US dollar has also retreated because there is some hope that the COVID-19 pandemic will slow down in the upcoming weeks.
The oil price plunged in yesterday's session after OPEC meeting. However, the USD/CAD pair remained unaffected by this news. Therefore, it continues to drop. Technically, the pair is under massive pressure according to the Daily chart, so a further drop is favored if traders start selling off the US dollar.
USD/CAD has slipped below the 38.2% retracement level and below the weekly S1 (1.4014), it is traded below the downtrend line, channel's resistance. That's why it is still bearish and it could extend the sell-off.
So, the bias is bearish as long as USD/CAD is traded within the down channel, the next potential target is seen at the S2 (1.3839) - 50% area, and only a valid breakdown through this downside obstacle will validate a broader drop towards the S3 (1.3672) towards the 61.8% retracement level and towards the channel's downside line.
Another low, a drop below 1.3930 and 1.3920 support will confirm a further drop at least till the S2 (1.3839) level. USD/CAD is bearish after the failure to take out the downtrend line. It has only tested and retested this line and the S1 (1.4014) level / 38.2% retracement level. USD/CAD could approach the downside line if the USDX drops towards the 98.00 psychological level again.
A further drop could be invalidated only by a breakout from this descending channel above the downtrend line. You could search for long opportunities from above 1.4080 level.
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