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The pair has developed two patterns, a reversal one, and a continuation pattern, now we have to wait for confirmation before we take action again. EUR/USD is trading right on a critical support area, but it is too soon to say if we see a further drop or a bullish momentum.
The US Unemployment Claims could decrease from 1542K to 1300K in the previous week. Better than expected data will help USD to continue its upside journey. CB Leading Index is expected to increase by 2.4%, while the Philly FED Manufacturing Index could be reported at -23.0 points, better compared to the -43.1 in the previous reporting period.
EUR/USD is pressuring the 1.1239 static support and the R1 (1.1243) level, unfortunately, it has registered only several false breakdowns below these downside obstacles. The pair has developed a Head&Shoulders pattern after the failure to reach the R2 (1.1383) level again.
The pair is trapped within a Falling Wedge as well in the short term, yesterday's false breakdown below the 1.1239 level has signaled that the bulls are still in the game, so only another lower low, drop, and close below the 1.1212 level could validate the H&S pattern and could signal a further drop.
On the other hand, EUR/USD is located within an extended sideways movement, between the R1 (1.1243) and R2 (1.1383) levels, a valid breakout from this pattern will bring a great trading opportunity.
The price is traded below the upper median line (UML) of a major descending pitchfork, you can notice that EUR/USD has failed to stabilize above this dynamic resistance, so a further drop is favored. A downside breakout will suggest selling with a first potential target at the 50% retracement level.
Sell if EUR/USD drops and closes below the 1.1207 former low, the 50% (1.1097) and 61.8% (1.1021) levels could be used as downside targets. EUR/USD could be attracted also by the median line (ML) of the major descending pitchfork if the price stays below the upper median line (UML).
A potential decline could be invalidated by a valid breakout from the minor Falling Wedge pattern and above the upper median line (UML). Still, a larger increase will be validated only by a breakout above the R2 (1.1383) level, the next upside target is seen at R3 (1.1622) level.
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