05.10.202013:27 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trump's positive COVID-19 test changes everything

Análisis a largo plazo

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Last Friday, it became known that US President Donald Trump was infected by COVID-19. This news excited everyone. Now his health is under threat, as is the country's stability. In this regard, strategists and even senior presidential aides said that voters would not support him. Trump has always been unceremonious about the pandemic, and he also neglected precautions. Now, the hope for his re-election is melting before our eyes. It looks like Trump has lost.

Even if he fully recovers after a period of isolation, this does not guarantee an election victory. Millions of Americans are already voting right now by mail or advanced voting in person.

Likewise, in the White House, presidential aides admit that Mr. Trump's recklessness has led to a political catastrophe. Trump not only neglected safety, but also underestimated the scale of the epidemic which killed more than 207,000 people in the United States.

Moreover, Donald Trump said that the 77-year-old former vice president is weak and unable to lead the country. Now, however, Trump himself is in this position.

Markets reacted with lightning speed to the news about Trump's illness. Many investors believe the US dollar will continue to rise until Trump recovers.

This news triggered a sell-off in the European stock market.

The Japanese yen made its sharpest surge in more than a month, reaching 105.62. Indicators that show the yen's volatility in one-month contracts rose by 7.6%, the highest in 4 weeks. This suggests volatile trade in the future.

The US dollar index, which measures it against a basket of six other currencies, fell by 0.1% to 93.860. This is because traders began to seek additional risk at the expense of safe-haven currencies.

EUR/USD climbed by 0.1% to trade at 1.1724, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD grew by 0.2% to 0.7172.

The pound sterling has changed little as the UK and EU re-negotiated a post-Brexit deal. The upcoming negotiations will be decisive for the country's currency, as the end of the transition period is approaching.

GBP/USD fell by 0.1% to settle at 1.2922, while EUR/GBP grew by 0.2% to 0.9072.

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