17.10.201709:02 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Today is Mark Carney's Day

Análisis a largo plazo

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In general, the market remained fairly stable yesterday as expected, this is mostly because of the empty macroeconomic calendar. We are expecting for a much more intense day for today.

Initially, the British inflation data is scheduled to be released, with an expectation to accelerate from 2.9% to 3.0%. This will certainly lead to an increase in the pound, but extremely limited since the main issue is not the growth of inflation but the reaction of the Bank of England. The inflation will keep the refinancing rate at 0.25% as the borders seem risky. After one and a half hour after the publication of inflation data, the speech of Governor Mark Carney will take place. The clarification of the regulator's plans regarding the timeline of raising the refinancing rate is much awaited from the head of the Bank of England.

In Europe, inflation data are also published, but it is anticipated to remain unchanged. More likely, this indicates the completion of the quantitative easing program in December. Generally, this scenario has already been highly considered by the market, hence, the impact towards the rate of the single European currency will be limited.

In the United States, the data on industrial production is awaited, with the growth rate expected to accelerate from 1.5% to 2.0%.

The euro-dollar pair will most likely consolidate at the 1.1775 level. But the market, in general, is set for the increase of the Fed's refinancing rate in December, which has a beneficial effect on the dollar. If in case the inflation data in Europe came in slightly worse than forecasts, the EUR/USD pair will fall to 1.1695 area.

The pound-dollar pair is completely dependent on Mark Carney's statements. If the Bank of England Governor announces an increase in the refinancing rate, then by the end of the year, the pound will grow to 1.3475. Contrarily, the pound will continue to decline to 1.3165 if his words are unconvincing.

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