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The reduction in the degree of geopolitical risks, the growth of the yield of US Treasury bonds and the strengthening of the dollar made gold notch a three-day decline in prices. The precious metal has returned to the weekly low, and judging by the growing probability of tightening the Fed's monetary policy in December to 93%, this is not the limit. According to TD Securities, for the return of futures quotations above the psychologically significant $ 1,300 mark for an ounce, the weakness of macroeconomic statistics in the United States is required. To the disappointment of the "bulls" for XAU/ USD, the latter continues to please fans of the US dollar.
In September, import prices accelerated from 2.1% to 2.7%, which is the indicator's best performance since June and also increases the chances of continuing the normalization cycle of the monetary policy of the Fed. If the FOMC really worries about inflation, then an increase in the rate of its growth should give confidence in the need to raise the rate for federal funds. The situation with GDP is no worse. Pessimists were concerned regarding economic slowdown under the influence of hurricanes, however, judging by industrial production (+ 0.3% m/m in September), things are not as bad as they were supposed to be. Hopes for accelerating inflation and GDP, including through the implementation of tax reform, push up the yield of US Treasury bonds, which is a "bearish" factor for gold.
Dynamics of the yield of 10-year US and gold bonds
Source: Trading Economics.
Precious metals can not cling unto the improvement in market conditions for physical assets. Active purchases on the eve of Diwali's wedding feast allow us to forecast the growth of gold consumption in India. For 9 months, the indicator reached the level of 700 tons, which is 5% more than last year's value. Despite the strengthening of the dollar and the growing risks of retreat in XAU/USD, the outflow of capital from ETF in October, according to Commerzbank's research, remained modest (4.6 t). Alas, but especially strongly rely on the demand for a physical asset "bulls" for XAU/USD is not worth it: traditionally in the period of falling prices, it increases in the jewelry business and decreases in the investment area. Simply put, demand follows prices, but not vice versa.
The gold can be supported by uncertainty. The information that diplomats from North Korea and the United States can meet in Russia has reduced the degree of geopolitical risks. Nevertheless, the conflict has not yet been resolved. As, strictly speaking, the question of Catalonia has not been resolved. There are certain difficulties in the negotiation process between London and Brussels over Brexit, as well as the risks of getting a weak government in Japan after early elections. These factors can put pressure on the yield of US bonds and return interest of buyers to XAU/USD.
It should be noted that at the head of the Fed, most likely, will be Jerome Powell, who adheres to the policy of gradual normalization. Its realization allowed the precious metal to add 11.5% from the beginning of the year.
Technically, the breakthrough of support at $ 1 262-1 267 per ounce will increase the risk of activation of the pattern AB = CD. It targets 200% near the $ 1212 mark.
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