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The dollar continued to lose its positions, and even the results of the ECB meeting on monetary policy could not make any changes in the course of events. It can be said that Mario Draghi's speech only stopped the further decline of the dollar. As the meeting approached, most investors kept in mind the text of the minutes of the previous meeting on monetary policy. In it, almost straight text was spoken about the possibility of raising the refinancing rate already in the first half of this year. This very opportunity gave strength to the single European currency. Following the meeting, there were no surprises, and interest rates remained unchanged, which coincided with market expectations. But the press conference of Mario Draghi caught many unawares. The head of the ECB said that the program of quantitative easing, if necessary, could be extended after September. As for the rates, the words were once again said that they will remain at the current low levels for a long time. After such statements, the weakening of the dollar stopped, but it did not begin to increase either. Although a significant correction surfaced by itself.
Investors need to comprehend all that has happened and evaluate the current disposition in the market. And, apparently, not only confusion, which market participants experienced, but also more and the forthcoming meeting of the Federal Commission on Open Market led to a certain lull. We can say that now the ball is in the hands of the Fed, and the way it will dispose of it, will determine the further development of events.
Unlike the ECB, there will be no press conference of the Fed this week, so all attention will be onthe press release. Earlier, the Fed voiced plans for three increases in the refinancing rate before the end of this year. If the text of the accompanying commentary indicates adherence to this plan, then the dollar can begin a full-fledged correction in relation to all world currencies. This will also be accompanied by a decrease in prices in the commodity market, since the dollar is in reverse correlation with respect to these assets. However, there are concerns that the Fed may somewhat reduce the pace of tightening monetary policy, as economic dynamics indicate a slowdown in growth. True, in Europe they expect a slowdown in inflation, which will not add optimism to the single European currency. In any case, if the Fed hints at the possibility of only two increases in the refinancing rate, there can not be any correction. Rather, it will be possible to prepare for further weakening of the dollar. But for the meantime the market is waiting for confirmation of previously designated plans. In addition, on Friday there are data on the labor market, which can also help strengthen the dollar. It is expected that the unemployment rate should remain the same, and this despite the fact that an increase in the proportion of able-bodied people in the total population is expected. This will be possible only if the rate of creation of new jobs is accelerated, which is expected. Moreover, the average hourly wage is projected to accelerate. So even without the meeting of the Federal Commission for open market operations, the dollar will have plenty of reasons for growth.
By the end of the week, the euro/dollar pair may decline to 1.2125. If the Fed disappoints investors, the 1.2600 mark does not seem so unrealistic.
The pound/dollar pair is likely to fall to 1.3800. But it all depends on the Fed, so 1.4300 is quite realistic.
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