01.03.201802:41 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Inflation in the euro area declines for the third consecutive month

All the attention of traders was focused on the data on inflation in the euro area which disappointed market participants. Inflation in the euro area is declining for the third consecutive month. What can we expect from the euro?

No matter how it seems, the inflation rate that was set in the autumn of last year is gradually extinguished with the euro zone's CPI is declining for the third consecutive month. This is a very unpleasant fact for the European Central Bank which set a 2% target in the next few years.

This is also an unpleasant moment for traders who are betting on the further strengthening of the euro at the beginning of this year. The main reason for the lack of demand is the probable postponement of the deadline for the curtailment of the ECB's repurchase program, which was scheduled for the fall of this year. Also, we have to forget about all the talk about raising interest rates in early 2019.

Let's understand why it happened that way.

According to today's data, even if it is preliminary, it can be seen that in February this year, the inflation rate in the eurozone slowed for the third month in a row. So, consumer prices in the euro area for the month of February rose by only 1.2% compared to the same period in 2017, which is below the target level of the ECB, set just below 2%. As early as November 2017, inflation showed an increase of 1.5%.

A number of experts associate a slowdown in inflation with a decline in energy prices, which revived the CPI in 2016 and kept it growing throughout 2017. Also, there is a noticeable lack of a fundamental link between the acceleration of economic growth and the rise in inflation that was to occur. A similar situation is observed in the United States.

If we talk about core inflation, which does not take into account volatile prices for energy and food products, then growth was at 1%.

As I have already mentioned, a number of European Central Bank leaders, including its president Mario Draghi, made it clear that as long as there is no concrete evidence of an increase in inflation, no one will talk about a change in soft monetary policy despite good economic growth.

It is important to note that the strong growth of the US dollar began yesterday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made a speech in the Congress where he said that there was an improvement in the prospects for the US economy, which keeps the Federal Reserve's policy rigid. So he outlined his position on further raising interest rates.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the breakthrough in the support level of 1.2200 could significantly collapse the trading instrument, since there is a mass of monthly stop orders for buyers of risky assets below this range. The breakthrough at the level of 1.2200 will lead to a pair of support in the areas of 1.2130 and 1.2080, which will also allow us to hook the level of 1.2050.