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When investors do not know what to do, they buy gold. Mutual threats of the US and China on the introduction of import duties caused only a temporary decline of stock indices on fears of a slowdown in the world economy due to the trade war. The US administration managed to calm investors, who can not understand how the US dollar will react. According to Morgan Stanley, negotiations between Washington and Beijing, a strong economy, tightening of the monetary policy of the Fed and improvement of the state of foreign trade allow us to rely on the growth of the USD index. Deutsche Bank, on the contrary, is confident of its decline due to a double deficit.
While the foreign exchange market is looking for an answer to the question of how to respond to a trade war, investors are buying up precious metals. ETF stocks continue to increase, and Xetra-Gold, one of the three largest specialized exchange funds, has increased to peak levels since its inception in 2007. This indicates a high demand for the analyzed asset, primarily in Europe.
"Bulls" of XAU/USD particularly do not panic about the potential decline in Indian imports. Bloomberg, referring to its reliable sources in Delhi, who wished to remain anonymous, reported a reduction in shipments to 64.2 tons to that country in March. A year ago, it was about a figure of 121 tons. History shows that if gold flows from East to West ( in ETF), then the chances of getting an uptrend are much higher than the downtrend.
Especially against the background of increasing volatility of precious metals. The 60-day indicator rose to 12.4, the highest for more than a year. In such conditions, one can expect increased activity from central banks in the area of purchases of the analyzed asset for increasing gold and foreign exchange reserves.
Dynamics of gold volatility
If we add to the above, the recent escalation of the conflict around Syria and Iran, the growing likelihood of Russia's response to US economic sanctions and the associated deterioration of global appetite for risk, it becomes clear that the fundamental background contributes to the continuation of the XAU/USD rally.
The return of investors' interest in the single European currency also played a role in the process. Its share in the USD index is 57%. Therefore, the "hawkish" comments made by Ewald Novotny about the completion of QE in 2018 and the increase in the deposit rate from -0.4% to -0.2%, as well as the optimism of other ECB representatives regarding the prospects of a slow down in the first quarter of the economy for the currency bloc, returned hopes of a recovery of an upward long-term trend to bulls of the EUR/USD.
The release of data on US inflation for March and the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the FOMC can hinder the plans of the fans of the precious metal. Overclocking the CPI and the "hawkish" rhetoric of the Fed will increase the chances of four rate hikes on federal funds in 2018 and will provide short-term support to the dollar.
Technically, breaking through the resistance at $1357 and $1362 per ounce will increase the risks of activating of AB = CD patterns and the realization of their targets by 127.2% and 161.8%.
Gold, daily chart
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