25.04.201814:49 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Germany revises the forecast for GDP growth for the worse

Análisis a largo plazo

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The euro continues to remain under pressure despite of good data that came out today in the morning. Apparently, the statements of US President Donald Trump during the today's Asian trading session were perceived by traders more seriously than expected.

Let me remind you that Donald Trump today reiterated the need to change his trade with the EU, with trade barriers and trade deficit are unacceptable for the United States. According to the US President, farmers should not send their products to the EU as they should.

As I noted above, the data on France did not impress investors.

According to the report of the National Bureau of Statistics of France (INSEE), the consumer confidence index was 101 points in April 2018 against 100 points in March this year. Economists expect that the index in April will drop to 99 points.

The number of unemployed in France decreased in the first quarter, indicating a continued growth in the labor market.

According to the report of the French Ministry of Labor, the number of unemployed in the 1st quarter of this year decreased by 1% compared to the previous quarter, amounting to 3,43,900. In the comparison, the number of unemployed fell by 1.4% in same period last year.

Today, the government report of Germany about the prospects for economic growth was also published. There were a number of changes in it, and, unfortunately, it is not for the better.

As stated in the report, the German government lowered its forecast for GDP growth to 2.3% in 2018 from 2.4%.For 2019, GDP growth is projected at the level of 2.1%. With regard to exports, it is expected to continue its growth this year at 5.0%. Also, the private consumption is expected to grow by 1.8%.

On one hand, such data indicate a healthy growth of the economy despite of the negative scenario. On the other hand, protectionist measures on the part of the United States, especially with regard to Germany's export and trade balance, may force the government to reconsider the forecasts even worse.

The German Minister of Economics immediately said after the report that the current developments in trade policy are a cause for concern, which confirms my assumptions once again about the decline in the second quarter of this year.

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, it will move further on a bearish scenario, and a break of the monthly lows will lead to the renewal of new support levels at 1.2150 and 1.2120.

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