27.04.201808:06 Forex Analysis & Reviews: The dollar comes on a broad front, the ECB does not interfere

Análisis a largo plazo

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EUR / USD

On Thursday, the euro had a significant decline among other major currencies in Forex due to neutral or with a slightly negative connotation speech of ECB President Mario Draghi. The regulator's decision is to keep the current policy unchanged. In an accompanying statement, the ECB confirmed that the asset purchases will continue until the end of September or longer if necessary. The rate will remain at the current level for a long time after the completion of this program (the market expects the rate to rise for the first time in mid-2019). Mario Draghi noted the relatively rhythmic growth of the economy but made a reservation for increasing political risks, including trade wars and a slow rise in inflation. Traditionally, Draghi repeated that without the political and economic reforms as the eurozone will continue to experience difficulties.

US economic indicators came out positive and pressure intensified on the euro. The volume of durable goods orders in March increased by 2.6% against expectations of 1.6%. Basic orders showed zero growth against the forecast of 0.5%. Wholesale orders in commercial warehouses in March increased by 0.5%, while weekly applications for unemployment benefits decreased from 233 thousand to 209 thousand which is the minimum value since 1970. The foreign trade balance in March improved from -75.88 billion dollars to -68.04 billion dollars with the expectation of -74.80 billion.

The American stock market increased by 1.04%, gold decreased by 0.4%, and these factors harmoniously closed the day of the usual strengthening of the dollar.

Even numbers are also expected in the euro area today. French GDP for the first quarter is expected to grow by 0.4%, while Spain's GDP is projected at 0.7%. German unemployment rate in April may remain at the level of the previous month, showing a forecast of -15 thousand against -17 thousand previously. France's consumer prices for April are expected to grow by only 0.1%.

The main event of the day will be the US GDP for the first quarter with an initial estimate of 2.0%. The indicator would likely be the largest for the first quarter of the past 4 years, which opens up prospects for outstanding growth in the second quarter. Also, the labor cost index for the first quarter will be released, the index is expected to grow by 0.7% against 0.6% in the previous period. The final assessment of consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for April can be upgraded to 98.0 from 97.8.

We are expecting the euro in the nearest range of 1.2040 / 60 with an attempt to consolidate below to move further to the area of 1.1900, the key level of the second half of last year.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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