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The dollar remains under pressure on the wave of increased geopolitical risks, which are produced personally by D. Trump and the United States. These include the situation in the Middle East around Iran, then the cancellation of the president's visit to North Korea, and the risk of a large-scale trade war between Washington and Beijing.
These events have already led to the fact that investors began to move away from risk by buying protective assets, which include gold, the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc, and government bonds of economically developed countries. Against this backdrop, the yield on US Treasury bonds fell, which has a noticeable negative impact on the dollar.
If a week ago the profitability of the benchmark of 10-year-old Treasuries grew above the important psychological level of 3.0%, which supported the growth of the value of the dollar in the currency markets, then by the end of this week, it fell below this mark. Today, at the time of writing, the yield is at 2.988%. However, despite this dynamic, we do not expect the dollar to continue its decline as there is a one-hundred percent expectation that following the June meeting results, a decision will be taken to once again raise rates by 0.25%. This will be an important positive factor for the dollar. At the same time, any reduction in tensions in the world will again push the dollar up against major currencies.
Today, important data on Britain's GDP are expected to be published. It can be assumed that maintaining the previous low growth rate will negatively affect the sterling rate, pushing it down against the dollar. In addition, the markets are waiting for the speech of the head of the Fed, J. Powell, who, perhaps in his speech, will detail his attitude to the process of raising rates. This will characterize the state of the economy and his vision for this, as his probable confidence that the rate of its growth will continue and the pressure of inflation that may increase will be an important signal indicating that the regulator can raise the aggregate rates this year not three times, but four times. The first time was at the beginning of the year, the second is expected in June, the third in September, and the fourth may be by the end of the year in December.
His positive speech can push the dollar today to rise against major currencies.
Forecast of the day:
The EURUSD pair remains in the short-term downtrend. It is likely that today, against the backdrop of Powell's speech, it will continue to decline to 1.1570 if it overcomes the 1.1680 mark.
The USDJPY pair turned up, which could lead to its local growth to 109.95, and then to 110.25 amid the speech of the Fed's head.
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