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The dollar declines at the trading session in Europe against almost all major currencies. The main reason for this, in our opinion, is the reduction in expectations that the Fed will decide this year to raise interest rates four times.
The exchange rate of the American currency is gradually decreasing in the wake of a similar drop in the hopes of market players that the currency wars launched by Donald Trump will exert pressure on economic growth both within the States and the entire world economy. In addition, the slowdown in the first quarter of the country's GDP growth and the stagnation of inflationary pressures began to shake the hopes of investors that the regulator will go on increasing interest rates four times this year.
At the same time, the chances of the euro significantly increased. According to the latest data, CPI rose 1.9% year-on-year, reaching close to the 2.0% target set by the ECB. This news, as well as the possible preservation of the growth rate of the region's economy, which the GDP data will have to signal today, may allow the Euro-currency to continue a more confident recovery. It is projected that in annual terms the eurozone's GDP will remain at the same level, 2.5%, and its quarterly value will keep the growth rate 0.4%. If the data does not disappoint, it will be possible to expect a noticeable growth of the single currency, and this is most likely to be observed in the eurodollar pair, as now the changes in the prospects for the ECB monetary policy are marked.
An additional stimulus to the growth of the euro could be the G-7 summit, where current conflicts can be resolved and new agreements reached, which can reduce the degree of tension and the probability of expanding trade wars. Although such a probability exists, it is unlikely that Donald Trump will seriously retract. Therefore, this growth in hopes may turn out to be short-lived.
Forecast of the day:
EURUSD is trading at the level of 1.1830. Positive data from the euro area's GDP may push the pair up to 1.1900, but for this it needs to overcome the 1.1830 mark and gain a foothold above it.
The GBPUSD pair has overcome the level of 1.3450 on the wave of "weakness" of the US dollar. It is likely that before the Fed meeting to be held next week, the pair will receive support and grow to 1.3550.
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