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Gold seriously upset the speculators who bet on the traditional growth of quotations after the meeting of the FOMC, which tightened monetary policy. As a result of the week, by June 12 (on the eve of the Fed meeting), they increased their net long positions by 11%, to 64572 futures and options contracts. Longs rose 3.9%, shorts declined 4.7%, which was the fourth peak in the row, the longest since September. In fact, the Fed's decision to raise the federal funds rate to 2% really triggered the growth of precious metal quotations to the monthly maximum, but it turned out to be short-term. A day later, Mario Draghi and his colleagues sent the euro into a knockout, which strengthened the dollar and became a cold shower for "bulls" for XAU / USD.
Dynamics of speculative short positions
When the divergence in the monetary policy comes to the foreground, gold is hard to come by. According to the head of the ECB, rates can be at current levels until September 2019, and possibly longer. The normalization of monetary policy will move very slowly, and if something goes wrong, the Governing Council will reconsider its plan to abandon the QE. The Fed, on the contrary, is confidently moving forward and is ready to raise the rate to 3-3.25% as early as 2019. This is higher than the neutral level (2.9%), so that monetary policy will be considered tough. Its various vectors with the ECB forced the EUR / USD to withdraw to the 11-month bottom, which raised the USD index and put pressure on the precious metal.
Alas, the escalation of trade tension between the US and China does not provide the gold with the necessary support. Donald Trump imposed $ 50 billion on China's import tariffs, Beijing responded. Washington smiled and added another $ 200 billion, and then another $ 200 billion if necessary. China has nothing to answer: all US imports in 2017 amounted to only $ 130 billion. Significantly less than Chinese exports to the US (more than $ 500 billion). Commerzbank finds it inconceivable why in the current environment the stock of specialized exchange funds is decreasing. The second largest ETF IShares Gold Trust recorded an outflow of 1.5 million ounces over the past 5 weeks. But just over a month ago, the fund's assets reached historic highs.
Dynamics of gold reserves IShares Gold Trust
The cause is easily found Brown Brothers Harriman. According to the company, trade wars lead to an increase in demand for the US dollar and the Japanese yen, while investors are not in a hurry to treasury bonds and gold. It is possible that a lack of understanding of how to trade forces them to diversify their portfolios in favor of the most liquid assets. There is a possibility to leave them quickly if necessary.
Technically, the implementation of the "Expanding Wedge" and AB = CD Patterns continues. The last target at 161.8% is located near the $ 1263 mark for an ounce, where a rebound is possible. The nearest important resistance levels should be found near the $ 1285 and $ 1289 marks.
Gold, the daily chart
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