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I would like to say that the single European currency yesterday surprised us a little as it is valued against the background of the BoE meeting on monetary policy. The thing is that three members of the board voted for an increase in the refinancing rate, whereas previously there were two of them. Immediately everyone started talking about the fact that in autumn the Bank of England could raise the refinancing rate. But with a single European currency, something else has happened. Of course, the growth of the pound supported the single European currency, but if we look at the yield of 30-year US bonds, which fell from 3.1% to 0.934%, then the picture starts to look a bit different. If the yield fell due to excessive demand, the dollar value should have appreciated. But if, the dollar became cheaper with such a collapse in yield, which could be caused only by the mass sale of government bonds. And this is quite logical, since the Fed raised the refinancing rate, and this will inevitably lead to an increase in the yield of all new bond issues. So investors trite sold their bonds, then to buy new ones, but with a higher yield.
If you forget about the results of the meeting of the Bank of England, as well as about the profitability of US government bonds, it is worth paying attention to the data on the labor market, which turned out to be slightly better than forecasts. Thus, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased from 221 thousand to 218 thousand, and the number of repeat applications increased from 1,701 thousand to 1,723 thousand. Thus, the total balance of claims for benefits increased by 20 thousand, whereas the forecast growth was 28 thousand.
Today, preliminary data on business activity indices are coming out both in Europe and in the USA. If you look at the Old World, the index of business activity in the service sector may decline from 53.8 to 53.7, and in the manufacturing sector from 55.5 to 55.0. So, the composite index of business activity is expected to decrease from 54.1 to 53.9. If you look at the forecasts for the main countries of the euro area, then the picture is not better. It is expected that the index of business activity in the service sector of France will remain unchanged, but the production index will decrease from 54.4 to 53.9. As a result, the composite index should decrease from 54.2 to 54.1. In Germany, the index of business activity in the service sector should also remain unchanged, while the production index may decrease from 56.9 to 56.2. So it is not surprising that the composite business activity index in Germany is expected to decline from 53.4 to 53.2. But, despite this, it will not last long although the single European currency will be under pressure as the US data is not expected to be any better. Let the production index and should grow from 56.4 to 56.5. The index of business activity in the service sector may fall from 56.8 to 56.4. Given the huge weight of the index in the service sector, the composite index should decrease from 56.6 to 55.1, and such a significant decrease will naturally put a strong pressure on the dollar.
In the morning, the single European currency will decline slightly, but then we will see growth to 1.1675.
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