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Last week, the pair tested the monthly control zone, like most major pairs, which led to the emergence of demand and the formation of a local accumulation zone, where the main resistance becomes the 1/2 control zone at 1.2793-1.2781.
The upward movement, in the second half of the month, becomes a priority, as the pair tested the monthly control zone of August. The probability of finding a price above this zone until the end of the current contract is 70%. This leaves an imprint on the trading plans that will be built in the next two weeks. On Friday, the US session was closed above the 1/4 control zone at 1.2727-1.2721, which allows you to look for patterns to buy with a depreciation rate in today's sessions. The main purpose of growth is the 1/2 control zone of 1.2793-1.2781. The same zone will act as a determining resistance.
To continue the upward movement, it is necessary to close today's US session above the level of 1.2793. This will open the way for further growth to the higher control zone.
An alternative option will be a fall in the exchange rate, which will lead to the absorption of Friday's growth and the closing of trading below the opening. This will indicate a high probability of renewing the August low, which will in the future give more favorable prices for the purchase. This model has a sufficient probability for realization, however, it is better not to open sales, as the pair has already overcome the average monthly range and the probability of occurrence of large demand is increasing every day.
The daytime CP is the daytime control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that change several times a year.
The weekly CP is the weekly control zone. The zone formed by marks from important futures market which change several times a year.
The monthly CP is the monthly control zone. The zone is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.
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