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On Friday, the euro moved toward the main scenario - a decline. On the daily chart, the price under the balance indicator line went down, than the market stabilize, respectively, shifted to the bearish side. On the 4-hour chart the price was fixed both under the balance line and under the blue moving average line. The MACD line (the blue indicator line) is the trend line - the price withdrawal below and a reversal indicates a trend change.
On 4-hour chart, before touching the signal line of the Marlin oscillator of the lower channel boundary, there is a distance of 70 points which corresponds to a price movement of about 140 points. And, this measured move coincides exactly with the support of the MACD trend line on the daytime timeframe. That is, at this point a qualitative bifurcation will ripen - either a market reversal for a breaking again the range 1.1750-1.1822, or maintaining below the line with the target to break 1.1300 and go even lower into the medium-term decline. It is believe that the price break down is the main scenario, we also hope that Friday's non farm data will not fail, the forecast for August is 191 thousand against 157 thousand a month earlier. Today was a holiday in the United States. On the euro area, the final evaluation of business activity in the manufacturing sector for August shows an unchanged forecast - 54.6 points. But investors are more focused on Canada's reluctance to sign the NAFTA agreement, in which disputes are supposed to be settled under US law. President Trump remains adamant, the continuation of negotiations is scheduled on Wednesday. So, the target levels are: 1.1530 - the support line for the price channel on daily, coinciding with the local minimums marked with crosses on 4-hour timeframe at 1.1450, - support for the MACD line on daily, 1.1300 - minimum from August 15.
* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.
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