19.10.201817:12 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Experts: Investors fear Fed mistakes and lose faith in global economic growth

Análisis a largo plazo

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Pessimism regarding global economic outlook has intensified among investors amid growing trade contradictions and expectations that the US Federal Reserve will continue its course aimed at tightening monetary policy, despite the turmoil in stock markets.

This is evidenced by the results of a survey conducted recently by the Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) among the managers of 174 large investment funds with total assets of $ 514 billion.

According to experts of the financial institute, the share of respondents who believe that the global economy is in a late stage of the cycle, followed by a reversal and a slowdown, reached a record high of 85%.

At the same time, 38% of respondents expect a slowdown in global GDP growth over the next 12 months, 35% predict a stagnation in corporate profits, and another 20% predict their decline.

Among the main risks for markets, investors identified trade wars (35%), tightening monetary policy in developed countries, including the United States, and curtailing monetary incentives (31%).

"The overwhelming majority of respondents believe that the S & P 500 index should sink to at least 2500 points before the Fed will refrain from increasing interest rates," said BAML representatives.

"The collapse in the US market in October forced investors to look into the eyes of the four horsemen of the apocalypse. The first is the rising dollar rates, the second is the growing trade wars, and the third is the instability of emerging markets. The fourth, which is still in the shadows, is the crisis around the budget deficit in Italy, which threatens to turn into a debt problem for EU countries," the experts said.

"However, the conditions for a full fall of the markets have not yet matured. According to the survey, investors prefer to keep 5.1% of portfolios in cash. This is 10% more than the average for the last 10 years. Despite the "bearish" view of global economic growth prevailing, there is a high probability that the availability of free funds for investment will give rise to a rebound in the markets," they added.

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