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AUD/USD rebounded after yesterday's drop and now is pressuring a dynamic resistance. Technically, the outlook remains bullish, but we still need confirmation before going long again on this pair.
The pair has decreased a little after USDX's rebound. AUD/USD could resume its upwards movement if the US Dollar Index drops deeper. Today could be decisive for USD as the US is to release the Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI, and the New Home Sales data.
USD could try to increase a little if the US data comes in better than expected. As you already know, the Unemployment Claims dropped unexpectedly from 586K to 547K in the last week even if the specialists have expected to see an increase to 607K. Also, the CB Leading Index increased by 1.3% beating 1.0% expected.
AUD/USD is traded at 0.7731 level right above the descending pitchfork's median line (ML). It has decreased to retest the weekly pivot (0.7693) and now is struggling to come back higher.
The price action has printed a minor Falling Wedge pattern. A valid breakout from this pattern and stabilizing above the ML could signal that the rate may increase towards 0.78 psychological level again.
Personally, I believe that only a new drop below the median line (ML) and a new lower low could invalidate the bullish scenario.
Sell AUD/USD if the rate drops and closes below 0.7690 level. The S1 (0.7624) level could be used as a downside target.
Buying could be indicated by a new higher high, if AUD/USD jumps above 0.7764. Also, a temporary consolidation above the ML, false breakdowns below this dynamic support could bring a long opportunity sooner.
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