15.11.201815:00 Forex Analysis & Reviews: OPEC's response to the oil market swing is unpredictable - experts

According to some experts, the meeting of the OPEC countries, scheduled for December 6, 2018, may be held ahead of schedule. In any case, analysts are confident that this day will be the most important for all participants in the oil market.

Early next month, cartel members planned to get together to discuss the issue of suspending the longest oil sale in history. However, the current situation associated with the global collapse of oil prices may make adjustments to the plans of the organization. At the moment, calls are increasingly heard to reduce the production of black gold, and the cartel may hold an emergency meeting until December 6.

Dominick Chirichella, an experienced strategist at energy markets, who has been watching OPEC for about 35 years, noted that the cartel had previously used certain tricks to overcome the crisis that you can approve or reject at the upcoming meeting."

According to D. Chirichella, an impressive rally of quotations and a drop in oil prices in the market occurred after the statement of the Saudi authorities about the need to reduce the export of black gold by 1 million barrels per day. Later, on Tuesday, November 13, the cartel provided a monthly overview of the market, where the bearish trend was clearly visible. The agency reduced its forecast for oil demand growth in 2018, focusing on slowing raw material consumption in the Middle East and China. At the same time, the organization reported on a growing proposal coming from other states. The market responded to these statements with a 7% collapse, experts say.

Most analysts come to the conclusion that the collapse of oil prices on Tuesday was caused not only by the OPEC report but also by the forecast of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Recall, Fatih Birol, the executive director of the organization, appealed to American oil producers with an appeal to further increase the already record level of production. Experts believe that such statements by the IEA are explained by the support of Western oil importers.

Another factor capable of provoking a collapse, experts consider the use of algorithmic trading models that sell or buy on the basis of established targets, ignoring fundamental market factors. In this situation, experts are concerned about the question, will the value of black gold fall below $ 50? They find it difficult to answer what has become a real catalyst for sales of oil prices.

Currently, global oil prices are almost 30% lower than the four-year highs reached in early October of this year. WTI oil is trading within the annual minimum of $ 55 per barrel against a maximum of $ 77 recorded six weeks ago. Quotes of Brent North Sea oil were at an eight-month low near the level of $ 65, although a month and a half ago the price reached $ 87.

Sale of oil prices resumed on Wednesday. This was the longest "bearish" phase of the market in history, experts emphasize. According to Adam Sarkhan, strategist at 50 Park Investments, WTI oil has a real chance to be below $ 50. He drew attention to the prevalence of a pronounced "bearish" trend in the market. Experts find it difficult to answer how OPEC will react to the current situation and whether the cartel will wait for the scheduled meeting. Analysts do not exclude the possibility of an emergency collection organization.

Phil Flynn of the Price Futures Group is sure of this. He believes that OPEC members need to have an emergency meeting to try to balance the market. John Kilduff of the Again Capital Capital hedge fund agrees with this statement: "Emergency measures cannot be ruled out, especially if oil drops below $ 50 over the next two days, which will cause great damage to the market."

Previously, cartel members had already held emergency meetings to influence the market, but this rarely happened. In its actions, OPEC has always been cautious. According to experts, since three weeks are left before the scheduled meeting, the organization of an early summit will be difficult. According to J. Kilduff, the members of the cartel may declare that the upcoming limitation of oil production will be stronger than expected, up to 2 million barrels per day.