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The American dollar regained some of its positions after yesterday's publication of the European Central Bank's minutes from the monetary policy meeting, as well as against the background of good data on the US labor market.
Speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also reassured traders and investors.
Yesterday, US President Donald Trump said that if negotiations on the financing of the construction of the wall were unsuccessful, he could declare a state of emergency in the country. Trump also noted that he will not go to the World Economic Forum in Davos this month if the work of the government does not resume.
The data, which came out yesterday afternoon, supported the US dollar. Despite the fact that the data were only weekly, the stable situation in the labor market continues to support the American economy.
According to a report by the US Department of Labor, the number of Americans who first applied for unemployment benefits declined by 17,000 to a total of 216,000 in the week from December 30 to January 5. Economists had expected the number of applications to be 230,000.
Also yesterday, everyone closely followed the performance of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Washington Economic Club.
At the beginning of the speech, Powell noted that 2018 was very good for the US economy, and the labor market remains strong enough in many respects.
As for interest rates, there is no plan for raising them. The Fed Chairman said he would be patient while watching the situation in the economy.
Criticism of US President Donald Trump also does not cause Powell to worry, since, in his words, he does not take political factors into account when making monetary policy decisions. There is no information about the meeting of the Fed Chairman with Trump.
During the speech, the Fed Chairman also touched upon the problem of instability in financial markets, which, in his opinion, is caused by concerns about trade and world economic growth. However, Powell noted that he was ready to quickly and flexibly change the policy, if necessary.
At the end of the speech, the discussion was about the suspension of government work, which usually does not affect the economy, but a longer suspension of work may be reflected in the economic data.
As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD currency pair, the upward potential of the euro is under threat. Today, traders will closely monitor data on inflation in the US, and the reaction of the market can be anything. On the one hand, weak data will not allow us to expect a further increase in interest rates, on the other hand, low-key inflation will allow the Fed to take a pause, which will definitely help financial markets.
Breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1540 may lead to the preservation of the upward potential in risky assets, but the main goal will be to break this week's high around 1.1575. In case of unsuccessful growth above the level of 1.1540, the lower limit of the new downward price channel can be formed, which will push the trading instrument to the minimum of 1.1490 and 1.1440.
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