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It seems that investors have decided to sit aside until the announcement of the meeting of the European Central Bank. The EUR / USD pair is almost immobilized. Meanwhile, the completion of QE in the old world and the reduction of political risks around Italy contribute to an increase in non-resident demand for bonds issued in Europe. This is an important growth driver for the main currency pair. The "bulls" apparently need evidence of an improvement in the macroeconomic situation in the form of positive statistics and signals about the normalization of monetary policy. But here, it is worth declaring about the deficit.
Although the economic sentiment from ZEW in Germany has improved somewhat, the assessment of the current state of the economy by investors has collapsed to a minimum of 4 years. The European bulls are worried about the possible easing of the rhetoric by ECB officials at a meeting on January 24; they are also afraid of hints of a resumption of QE against the background of a serious economic slowdown in the second half of last year.
The expected breakthrough was not brought by trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing. According to Larry Kudlow, chief economic adviser to the US president, their scale was deeper and wider than ever. However, the effectiveness of the dialogue will depend on the fulfillment of the commitments made by China, the official stressed. He also made it clear that Donald Trump, while striving to make a deal, will continue to stand his ground.
It should be noted that the meeting between Vice Premier of China Liu He and US Trade Representative Robert Lightheiser, scheduled for January 30-31, should be an important event in the talks.
The EURUSD pair for five of the six previous trading sessions closed in negative territory. However, the "bears" cannot yet link their success with the strength of the US economy. Everything is exactly the opposite: housing sales fell to a 3-year low, and price increases slowed sharply.
Apparently, the pair until the ECB meeting will continue to consolidate within 1.13-1.145.
Strategists at Citigroup believe that on the eve of the ECB meeting, traders can make a profit from the "short position" on the EUR / USD pair. According to their estimates, announced on Wednesday, the rate may fall on Thursday by 0.3%, to 1.1360.
The bank does not expect any changes in the interest rate policy or in the text of the final statement. According to analysts, it is not worth waiting for the announcement of new measures or policy instruments. Most likely, regulator officials will recognize the weakening of economic growth in the eurozone, point out the risks for forecasting inflation, and reduce the risk assessment to "distorted downward".
A hawkish scenario that will not contain changes to the text of the final statement may lead to an increase in the EUR / USD pair by 0.3%, to 1.1390. The least likely "pigeon" scenario can significantly change the rate of EUR / USD, they write in Citi. In this case, a fall of 1.3% is possible, to 1.1220.
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