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The progress in US and Chinese trade negotiations, as well as expectations of the "pigeon" Fed rhetoric in the minutes of the FOMC meeting in January, opened the way for the XAU / USD bulls to 10-month highs. Since the beginning of the year, gold has added 4.8% amidst fears of a slowdown in the global economy and an understanding that central banks will not rush to tighten the monetary policy. In such conditions, the rates of the global debt market will continue to be at historically low levels, and a non-interest-bearing precious metal can seriously compete with bonds.
At first glance, it seems strange that the de-escalation of the trade conflict between the United States and China, supported the gold because precious metals are traditionally perceived as a tool for hedging geopolitical risks. In fact, the US dollar gained the most from the war in Washington and Beijing in 2018. There are news that says that Donald Trump considers the progress in relations to be substantial. The parties are close to signing the memorandum and the States are asking China to stabilize the yuan, which have contributed to the closure of the longs for the dollar. Judging by the dynamics of speculative net positions, the place of the "American" in investment portfolios is occupied by commodity and other currencies.
Dynamics of speculative positions on G10 currencies
Gold is supported by the confidence of the growing market in the end of the Fed's monetary policy normalization cycle. CME derivatives do not even believe in one federal fund rate increase in 2019. Moreover, New York Fed President, John Williams, claims that he feels comfortable at the current rate of 2.5%. According to a reputable official, to increase it, pleasant surprises from GDP and inflation are required. Personally, I doubt that you should count on them. On the contrary, the weather is traditionally bad for this time of the year. The fading of the fiscal stimulus effect, the negative impact of revaluation on US corporate income and exports, and the disabling of the government can slow down the economy to 1.5-1.8% in the first quarter. It is quite possible that the series of negative macroeconomic statistics that started with retail sales will continue to flow.
Last 2018, on the eve of historical meetings of the FOMC regarding gold, they made a rule. As a rule, they got rid of rumors of a rise in the federal funds rate. But in 2019, it is actively growing. In January, the Fed changed the "hawk" outfit for the pigeon's feathers. Therefore, investors expect the minutes of the last Committee meeting to be another proof of a change in the outlook of the Central Bank, which plays into the hands of the bulls at XAU / USD. At the same time, rumors are circulating in the market that the Fed may push the yield curve towards inversion, which will increase the risk of recession in 2020. For this, the regulator must express fears about the fate of the US economy.
Technically, gold has reached an important resistance of $ 1,342 per ounce. It corresponds to the correction level of 88.6% from the last long-term downward wave. In case of a confident breakthrough, the "bulls" are fully capable of performing a target of 361.8% using the AB = CD pattern.
Gold daily chart
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