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4-hour timeframe
Technical details:
The upper linear regression channel: direction - down.
The lower linear regression channel: direction - down.
Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.
CCI: -8.6153
On Wednesday, April 3, the currency pair EUR/USD began to be adjusted. Moreover, the correction began at the wrong time, which would be more logical. Yesterday, reports on orders for long-term goods in the United States frankly failed, and the trend of weak macroeconomic statistics from America is beginning to alarm us. The main indicator for February fell by 1.6%, excluding transport edged up 0.1% (below the forecast), excluding the defense of 1.9%. However, the strengthening of the euro has begun tonight, and not yesterday at the American trading session. The fact that traders do not respond to disappointing statistics from the States indicates that sales of the pair are now preferable. It will be possible to expect a more or less serious strengthening of the euro not earlier than overcoming the moving average line. Today, the euro area is scheduled to publish retail sales for February with a forecast of + 2.3% y / y. If in reality, the increase will be smaller, then the euro may once again fall down. In America today, indices of business activity in the services sector Markit and ISM will be published, as well as a composite IDA. In addition, there will be a report on the change in the number of workers in the private sector. They can also support the US dollar. By the way, we state the fact that for the eighth time traders failed to overcome the area of 1.1200 - 1.1270, this time the fall stopped near the lower boundary of this area.
Nearest support levels:
S1 - 1.1200
S2 - 1.1169
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 - 1.1230
R2 - 1.1261
R3 - 1.1292
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD currency pair has begun to adjust. Thus, it is now recommended to wait for the completion of the correction and resume trading for a fall with the targets at 1.1200 and 1.1169.
Buy positions are recommended to be considered no earlier than fixing the pair above the moving with the first targets at 1.1261 and 1.1292. In this case, the trend in the instrument will change to ascending, and the euro will have chances for strengthening.
In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanations for illustrations:
The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.
The lower linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.
CCI - blue line in the indicator window.
The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.
Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.
Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.
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