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The EUR/USD pair started a new trading week with moderate growth, but then it pulled back to the area of monthly lows after an unsuccessful attempt to stay above 1.1250.
According to experts, the recent growth of EUR/USD was mainly due to a relaxed holiday atmosphere, but now the market is gradually returning to its normal operations, and its participants recall that the macroeconomic reality of the eurozone has not changed at all.
Today, the EUR/USD pair has resumed its downward movement amid a recovery in the US dollar and the release of rather negative comments from ECB board member Benoit Coeur. In particular, the official expressed concern about the low level of inflation in the eurozone, which is observed against the background of fairly good growth rates of average wages. Separately, B. Coeur dwelled on the situation in the German economy, noting a stronger than previously expected slowdown in economic activity in this country. "Forecasts of the ECB provide for the acceleration of the growth rate of the economy of the currency bloc in the second half of the year, but this scenario is realized only in case of successful resolution of trade conflicts," he said.
Recall that in March, the regulator downwardly revised it estimates of economic growth in the region for 2019 - from 1.7% to 1.1%.
"Now the overall picture is more positive for the dollar than for the euro, given the divergence of macroeconomic indicators in the US and the eurozone," says Ulmer Leuchmann, an analyst at Commerzbank.
Today, the USD index reached its highest level since March 11, amid rising US Treasury yields on the eve of weekly government auctions and corporate reporting in the United States.
It should be noted that in reality, a currency revaluation occurs in anticipation of an increase in the interest rate by the central bank. However, if the Fed does not do this (even if the state of the US economy improves), then why should the dollar necessarily grow in the future?
The main reasons for the stability of the greenback seem to lie in the problems of its main competitors. For the euro, it's the eurozone's weak beginning, for the pound sterling - the situation around Brexit, for the Japanese yen - the super-soft policy of the Bank of Japan because of the "unwillingness" of inflation to reach the target level. It is assumed that as a result of solving these problems, the position of the dollar may seriously deteriorate. In this regard, the potential of a downard hike of the EUR/USD seems limited.
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