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On Wednesday, investors were disappointed by weak data on important US economic data, US President Donald Trump postponed the introduction of automobile duties for Europe, which prevented the dollar from developing an offensive. In April, retail sales in the USA decreased by -0.2% against expectations of growth by 0.2%, industrial production in the same month fell by 0.5% against expectations of it remaining unchanged (0.0%), inventories of companies March remained at the same level with a rate of 0.0%. All the most important components of GDP fell, which is why the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank's forecast for this indicator for the second quarter was lowered from 1.6% to 1.1%.
If investors still have a desire to break through technical support (reversal zones on April 2 and March 7), today data on new housing construction in the USA can help, which is expected to reach an estimate of 1.21 million y/y in April against 1.14 million y/y in March.
But before this, in the afternoon, the trade balance of the euro area for March will be published - the forecast is 19.0 billion euros against 19.5 billion in February. If expectations do not fail, that is, the trade balance will turn out to be weak, you can count on the strengthening of "bears" in the afternoon. In general, the current technical situation for the euro is neutral. On the daily chart, the marlin oscillator is not in a hurry to break away from the neutral line, and the price is also "stuck" to the MACD indicator line (blue), which creates prerequisites for growth to the balance line to the level of 1.1230.
On the four-hour chart, the marlin oscillator remains in negative territory, but the price feels comfortable between the balance and MACD lines. The euro can swing in any direction. Our main scenario is a test of the daily TF balance line and a departure below the MACD line either today or tomorrow, after which we will fall towards a target of 1.1155.
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