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4-hour timeframe
Technical data:
The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.
The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.
The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.
CCI: -105.3125
The government of Scotland seems to have made the final decision to get out of the UK. To do this, Nicola Sturgeon and the company will need the unequivocal support of the population and Brexit can help them with this. The main reason for the need to withdraw from the United Kingdom – a serious deterioration in the economic condition and standard of living of citizens after Brexit. Thus, the Scottish government has registered a bill providing for a referendum on independence before the end of 2021. It is assumed that before that time, it will become clear whether the UK will leave the EU and if so, the Scots will be given the right to choose – to remain in Britain or leave. For the pound, this is just another negative news, as due to the still unresolved issue with Brexit, it has fallen very much in the world currency markets, and in the case of Scotland, it may fall even more. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Philip Hammond said that the new parliamentary elections will not solve the problem of fragmentation of views on Brexit in Parliament. In his opinion, there is not only a split between the parties in the Parliament but also within the parties themselves. Simply put, even within each individual party, there is no consensus on what scenario should pass Brexit. Is it worth saying once again that with such a fundamental background in the market, there are only bears, and no one thinks about buying the pound?
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.2604
S2 – 1.2573
S3 – 1.2543
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.2634
R2 – 1.2695
R3 – 1.2756
Trading recommendations:
The pair GBP/USD continues to move down. Thus, it is now recommended to sell the pound with the targets at 1.2573 and 1.2543, and hold the short positions until the turn of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top, which will indicate a possible beginning of the correction.
Long positions should only be considered after the consolidation of the pair above the moving average with the targets at 1.2695 and 1.2726. However, at the moment, the bulls remain extremely weak.
In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanation of illustrations:
The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.
The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.
CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.
The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.
Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.
Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.
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