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Monetary policy has returned to the focus of the market. The Central Bank of Australia lowered the rate on Tuesday, two more easing is expected this year. Prior to this, investors saw incentives from the NBK, lowering the RBNZ rates and a pause in normalizing the policies of the Fed and the ECB. Nevertheless, America on Monday published weak macroeconomic reports, which surprised the markets. Moreover, the Fed for the first time publicly announced the need for policy easing. Investors are now trying to understand whether the current measures are enough to support economic growth.
At this time, the dollar to the basket of major competitors began to fall, it does not help even the status of a protective asset. Market participants sell the US currency, preferring the euro and gold. How long will it last? Maybe the dollar is changing direction.
EUR/USD
The euro and the dollar bounced from local lows to local highs in the last six weeks, but formally the downward trend is not broken. To do this, buyers need to break above 1.1250.
Meanwhile, the euro is supported by the expectations of the meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB. Note that the LTRO factor is already included in the quotes of the main pair, and in order to surprise the market, Mario Draghi needs to hint at the resuscitation of QE. However, we should not forget that the eurozone economy in the medium term is likely to continue to slip due to trade wars. While the current rise in the euro seems logical, it is unlikely to be a long-term one.
Gold
Gold rose to the highest levels since February. Today, there was some correction after methodical purchases during the previous three trading sessions. Among the factors supporting the quotations of precious metals in recent days can be identified a sharp decline in the yield of US treasuries and the weakening of the dollar, which forced investors to consider gold as a more profitable asset. If it goes on like this, the price may strengthen to $1340. Then there is a chance to grow to a six-year peak – $1360.
Dollar index
This year, it became clear that the United States is not an isolated state and the policy of protectionism of Donald Trump – a double-edged sword. The dollar without support from the fiscal stimulus and the Fed behaves differently. The decline in stock indices and the yield of treasuries lead to its weakening. And a year ago, everyone was told that trade wars allowed the "American" to intercept the status of the main asset-seeker from the yen and gold.
Goldman Sachs reduced its estimate of US economic growth by 0.5 percentage points to 2% this year. Economists expect the Fed to weaken monetary policy. It seems that almost 10-year economic expansion, which brought more than 20 million new jobs and increased the assets of Americans by $47 trillion, is coming to an end. Last year, the Central Bank went too far with the rate increase and is now looking for an opportunity to correct his mistake.
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